Like what you've read?

On Line Opinion is the only Australian site where you get all sides of the story. We don't
charge, but we need your support. Here�s how you can help.

  • Advertise

    We have a monthly audience of 70,000 and advertising packages from $200 a month.

  • Volunteer

    We always need commissioning editors and sub-editors.

  • Contribute

    Got something to say? Submit an essay.

 The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
On Line Opinion logo ON LINE OPINION - Australia's e-journal of social and political debate


On Line Opinion is a not-for-profit publication and relies on the generosity of its sponsors, editors and contributors. If you would like to help, contact us.


RSS 2.0

Why it's Labor who is copping the Longman protest vote

By Graham Young - posted Friday, 27 July 2018

If polls are right then Longman may be only the second seat to be taken from an opposition by a government since Federation.

Longman is typical of the outer-ring suburban seats that decide the fate of governments in Australia: full of new families, and retirees, a feeder suburb where people leave home to go to work, trading mortgage payments against miles in the car.

These are aspirational voters, with realism. They take modest steps towards their goals and tend to be frugal and careful.


Nestled between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast it has two major population centres – Caboolture/Morayfield and Bribie Island - and a swathe of hinterland.

Caboolture was a dairying centre with some small cropping and farming. Today most of Queensland’s strawberries, for example, are still grown in the area.

Morayfield was tacked under it, and is an urban area threaded by ribbon industrial and retail development along the major roads.

Bribie Island is a rapidly-developing, economy, beachside retirement area. You can buy a new house and land there for $349,900, or for $386,000 you’ll get waterfront and a marina berth.

The area is swing territory, home to two of the rising stars of the state Labor Party – Mark Ryan and Steven Miles, although since its inception it has been won more times by the Libs.

So what makes this a possible win for the LNP now?


First there is the margin - just 0.79%. It wouldn’t take too much to change that, a low turnout might be enough, without any change in underlying voter sentiment.

And that margin was achieved after a 7.71% swing – the largest in Queensland. That suggests that there may have been dissatisfaction with the previous member, and there was.

Electors thought he was too young, too aloof, too cocky, and they didn’t like him being key plotter in toppling Tony Abbott. And there were morality issues, like his stance on gay marriage, all of which culminated in One Nation directing preferences against him.

  1. Pages:
  2. Page 1
  3. 2
  4. 3
  5. All

An edited version of this article was published by the Australian Financial Review.

Discuss in our Forums

See what other readers are saying about this article!

Click here to read & post comments.

10 posts so far.

Share this:
reddit this reddit thisbookmark with Del.icio.usdigg thisseed newsvineSeed NewsvineStumbleUpon StumbleUponsubmit to propellerkwoff it

About the Author

Graham Young is chief editor and the publisher of On Line Opinion. He is executive director of the Australian Institute for Progress, an Australian think tank based in Brisbane, and the publisher of On Line Opinion.

Other articles by this Author

All articles by Graham Young

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Photo of Graham Young
Article Tools
Comment 10 comments
Print Printable version
Subscribe Subscribe
Email Email a friend

About Us Search Discuss Feedback Legals Privacy