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Erdogan’s reelection and its dire consequences

By Alon Ben-Meir - posted Wednesday, 4 July 2018


All governing institutions will be subject to his whims; he will have the first and last word on every matter of state with no challenge whatsoever. He should further be expected to issue decrees as he sees fit, fully subordinate the judiciary, and use the military to intimidate any of his neighbors and threaten others. He has no qualms about conducting major incursions on foreign land, as he is presently fighting in Syria and Iraq against the Kurds, whom he accuses of being associated with the PKK.

Western powers must now reassess their relations with Ankara, as Erdogan will undoubtedly flex his muscles both domestically and in his foreign relations to pursue his neo-Ottoman agenda. This development is bound to further destabilize the Middle East and pose serious challenges to the US, EU, and NATO in particular, as Turkey under absolute dictatorship no longer qualifies to be a member of the West's most important defense organization.

This must also be seen in light of the fact that Erdogan has developed close and friendly relations with the West's staunchest enemies-Russia and Iran. He purchased the S-400 air defense system from Russia, which is politically and strategically inconsistent with the West's relations with Moscow and technologically incompatible with NATO air defenses.

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He is working in tandem with Russia and Iran to find a solution to the Syrian civil war and deliberately sideline the US from playing any role in determining the final outcome. There is no doubt that Erdogan will continue to pursue his popular anti-Western sentiment and policies that will adversely undermine the West and their allies' interests in the Middle East.

While Turkey of yesteryear embraced democratic values, today's Turkey under Erdogan has violated every code of human rights and every principle of a democratic form of government. Any election, however free and fair, is only one element and does not in and of itself constitute a free democracy; the election in Turkey is no different. Erdogan may proclaim that he won the election fair and square, but in reality, he exploited the election to consolidate his power under the guise of democracy.

Although the current global shift toward acceptance of authoritarianism, as seen in Putin's Russia, the Philippines under Duterte, and Xi in China, does not justify Erdogan's actions, it sadly does serve to explain his victory.

Erdogan betrayed his own people before the election, and now he has been granted an even freer hand to vigorously pursue any domestic and foreign policy at his whim. The West must now apply zero tolerance toward Turkey and not allow a ruthless and corrupt leader to undermine Western interests in Europe and the Middle East without consequences.

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About the Author

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.

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