Net interstate migration to Queensland is on the rise. Does this mean we are about to boom?

As the graph shows, in periods when Queensland's full time jobs growth was stronger than or equal to rival states NSW and Victoria, net interstate migration was strong.

It's no coincidence that the strongest period of net interstate migration in both raw and relative terms was in that period of broadly 1983 to 1993, when Queensland was powering well ahead of NSW and Victoria on the full time jobs front. The next strongest period of net interstate migration (say 1998 to around 2003) also saw Queensland slightly outperform those states.

Likewise, the weakest period of net interstate migration – say from roughly 2007 to now – also coincides with a period when NSW and Victoria have been outgunning Queensland on the full time jobs front. This seems to be convincing evidence that the relationship between full time jobs growth and net interstate migration is a strong one.

What about house prices then?

My suggestion is simple: when you have a growing economy with growing full time jobs you are more likely to witness rising house prices due to demand side pressure (along with many other supply side factors having a bearing). Hence why prices have risen so much faster in places like Sydney and Melbourne in recent years, compared with Brisbane.

The question is whether this gap in house prices will now become a trigger for large movements in interstate migration? Is the current increase in net interstate migration in response to this widening gap?

The gap in median house prices has certainly widened to its widest point in some 15 years.

It is tempting to think this is the case and for those who have bought into the Queensland property market it is hard to resist the idea that cashed up southerners will begin to flood north, underpinning Queensland markets and driving price growth even when southern markets are softening.

However, the historic evidence seems to suggest that this is unlikely until Queensland's relative strength in full time jobs is at least aligned with or ahead of full time jobs growth in NSW and Victoria. When that happens, and if the gap in house prices still remains, then it might be time to get excited.