Why Trump's problems in Washington mean problems for Australia.

The latest complication for Trump has been the resignation of Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan. These issues coalesce to provide a uniquely distracting situation for Trump. The domestic challenges are linked to the international problems and any solutions to them.

The tariffs he recently imposed on China are a good example of this. Whilst aiming to hit China, Trump's position runs counter to the traditional GOP position on free trade and open markets. Republicans have been critical of Trumps move. Conversely, Democrats Marcy Kaptur (Oh) and Senator Bob Casey  have come out in support of Trump's tariff position as being good for their local industries.

And let's not forget that the mid-terms are only some six months away. Trump will not want to lose his slim Republican majority on the Hill. The loss of Ryan as a key Republican figure and fundraiser will not help. Should a hostile Democrat majority win control of Congress it will be almost impossible for Trump to further his domestic policy agenda.

As 2018 rolls on Trump is likely to become more focused on appealing to his domestic base to maintain the Republican majority. This may prove to be a distraction from what is happening in other parts of the world. To date his foreign policy has been all over the place and without a steady rudder. Given this is the case and the myriad problems he already has, how much concern will Trump have over the possibility of a Chinese base in Vanuatu? At the moment, probably not too much. The problem is that international events have a tendency to run ahead of policy. For this we have only to look at the contested South China Sea.

What does this mean for Australia?

It is abundantly clear that the rate of change in the global strategic calculus is increasing. Australia, like it or not, is being squeezed in the great power rivalry between the United States and China. With its strategic ally and economic partner now engaged in clear competition, Australia needs to have some very tough conversations about where policy should go.

To date the policy line has been to find a middle ground. But that ground is shifting. If Australia doesn't make some serious choices about its foreign policy those choices will be made for it by others.

One thing is certain, the Trump administration will be as unpredictable as ever. Perhaps even more so with the move to a more hawkish foreign policy team. Should his domestic agenda unravel it is entirely plausible that Trump may seek to bolster his position, and electoral chances, by pursuing foreign policy successes. It would not be the first time a leader has done so. This could play out on any number of issues: trade with China, Syria, North Korea, NAFTA. Take your pick.

This is why Trump's problems are also problems for Canberra. Australian leaders and policymakers must to be on their toes more than ever.

Given the extant uncertainty in the relationship between China and the United States, Australia faces some very difficult choices on defence and foreign policy.

The luxury of being geographically removed from great power rivalries, as it once was, is over.

With the United States as its strategic partner and China as its economic partner

Australia will inexorably be further drawn into the competition. The report about, and subsequent reaction to, the Chinese in Vanuatu reveals the delicacy of Australia's position. The reliability or otherwise of a distracted president complicates is an added complication.

Sharp thinking and deft policy is required.

The very discussion of any Chinese military facility in Vanuatu, much less its materialisation, should bring this into focus more than ever.