Why Trump's problems in Washington mean problems for Australia.

Australia's strategic policy has relied upon a strong relationship with the United States. However, an unpredictable President brings an unwanted element of uncertainty at a time of great change in Australia's backyard.

A recent report in the Australian media about the possibility of a Chinese military facility being established in Vanuatu illustrates Australia's strategic vulnerability. Regional power dynamics are changing rapidly. There has not been a time since 1941 where Australia has needed a reliable administration in Washington more. Yet the problems faced by Trump only add to the challenges Australia faces in navigating an increasingly complex security environment.

Here in the United States, it is clear that the president is fighting fires on many fronts. The international and the domestic. This in itself is not unusual. Almost all of his predecessors over the last century faced domestic problems while dealing with long standing, and unexpectedly sudden, issues and crises around the world.

However, in Trump's case it is different. The fires around him have the potential to be far more damaging to the United States. They come at a unique time. Domestic politics in Washington is bitterly divided. Trump's own Republican party is fractured. It lacks cohesion. Especially over Trump's leadership and his conduct as president.

In addition, the post-1945 world order is changing. The primacy of the United States is being challenged as never before. The possibility of a Chinese military base in the south-west Pacific demonstrates this and brings the challenge to Australia's doorstep.

A distracted president has the potential to leave power vacuums which will be filled by others. This is not in Australia's interest.

International challenges: tensions and tariffs

On the international front Trump is dealing with a triad of nuclear challenges, a strategically confident China and a complicated, deteriorating relationship with Russia. Together, and notwithstanding the situation in the Middle East, these constitute some of the most challenging international circumstances faced by a sitting president since FDR.

Should the Trump administration take their eyes of the ball on any of these issues the consequences will be rapid and profound. Perhaps nowhere more so than in the so-called Indo-Pacific region.

Domestic challenges: mired in the swamp

On the domestic front Trump is besieged by the Mueller investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 elections.

This has further divided Republicans, a party already at odds with Trump over some of his policy positions. Some say, including prominent Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, that the ongoing Mueller investigation has the potential to create a Constitutional crisis.

The latest complication for Trump has been the resignation of Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan. These issues coalesce to provide a uniquely distracting situation for Trump. The domestic challenges are linked to the international problems and any solutions to them.

The tariffs he recently imposed on China are a good example of this. Whilst aiming to hit China, Trump's position runs counter to the traditional GOP position on free trade and open markets. Republicans have been critical of Trumps move. Conversely, Democrats Marcy Kaptur (Oh) and Senator Bob Casey  have come out in support of Trump's tariff position as being good for their local industries.

And let's not forget that the mid-terms are only some six months away. Trump will not want to lose his slim Republican majority on the Hill. The loss of Ryan as a key Republican figure and fundraiser will not help. Should a hostile Democrat majority win control of Congress it will be almost impossible for Trump to further his domestic policy agenda.

As 2018 rolls on Trump is likely to become more focused on appealing to his domestic base to maintain the Republican majority. This may prove to be a distraction from what is happening in other parts of the world. To date his foreign policy has been all over the place and without a steady rudder. Given this is the case and the myriad problems he already has, how much concern will Trump have over the possibility of a Chinese base in Vanuatu? At the moment, probably not too much. The problem is that international events have a tendency to run ahead of policy. For this we have only to look at the contested South China Sea.

What does this mean for Australia?

It is abundantly clear that the rate of change in the global strategic calculus is increasing. Australia, like it or not, is being squeezed in the great power rivalry between the United States and China. With its strategic ally and economic partner now engaged in clear competition, Australia needs to have some very tough conversations about where policy should go.

To date the policy line has been to find a middle ground. But that ground is shifting. If Australia doesn't make some serious choices about its foreign policy those choices will be made for it by others.

One thing is certain, the Trump administration will be as unpredictable as ever. Perhaps even more so with the move to a more hawkish foreign policy team. Should his domestic agenda unravel it is entirely plausible that Trump may seek to bolster his position, and electoral chances, by pursuing foreign policy successes. It would not be the first time a leader has done so. This could play out on any number of issues: trade with China, Syria, North Korea, NAFTA. Take your pick.

This is why Trump's problems are also problems for Canberra. Australian leaders and policymakers must to be on their toes more than ever.

Given the extant uncertainty in the relationship between China and the United States, Australia faces some very difficult choices on defence and foreign policy.

The luxury of being geographically removed from great power rivalries, as it once was, is over.

With the United States as its strategic partner and China as its economic partner

Australia will inexorably be further drawn into the competition. The report about, and subsequent reaction to, the Chinese in Vanuatu reveals the delicacy of Australia's position. The reliability or otherwise of a distracted president complicates is an added complication.

Sharp thinking and deft policy is required.

The very discussion of any Chinese military facility in Vanuatu, much less its materialisation, should bring this into focus more than ever.