There will be no party winners in the current Queensland election.
Given the talent on offer, that's also what most voters are expecting, based on our virtual focus group of 311 Queenslanders who completed a 15 minute qualitative online survey between November 3 and 6.
It's a product of leaders past and present, an incompetent Labor campaign and an effective Greens one, and macro themes running through politics around the globe.
52% of our sample expects a hung parliament. The only group that disagrees is Labor voters, with 46% of them expecting an ALP win versus 43% for a hung parliament – hardly optimistic.
This isn't what voters want – 41% want an ALP win, 39% an LNP one, and only 17% a hung parliament.
While minor party voters are most likely to want a hung parliament, large percentages of them also want one of the majors to win. This underlines one of the features of the minor party vote – for many, if not most, it is a vote for protest, not for government.
Most voters (53%) don't think the government deserves to be re-elected, while only 37% think they do. The position is worse for the opposition with 56% thinking they don't deserve to be elected, while only 23% think they do.
Tellingly only 50% of LNP voters believe their own party deserves election, while 16% don't, and another 34% are neutral.
Labor has had a shambolic campaign, which in some ways encapsulates the record of its government.
It is seen as tentative and tricky, making a mockery of its claim that it can deliver stable government. Nothing sums this up better than the Adani issue.
This is the issue chosen by the Greens with their slogan being "Greens First: Adani Last". It works to the Greens' advantage in the seats where they are competitive – South Brisbane, Maiwar and McConnell – and is poison for the ALP in the regional seats where One Nation is strongest – anything Caboolture north and west, and Mt Ommaney west and south.
When inner city voters hear Adani they hear climate change. When rural and regional voters hear it, they hear jobs.
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