National Energy ‘Guarantee’: can our power ‘trilemma’ become a policy trifecta – or quinella?

The 'emissions guarantee' target is in the hands of current and future governments, who set emissions targets. The gap between those and where Australia is, sets renewable investment requirements. What those targets will be post-2020 is unknown.

3. Affordability (this depends on demand and supply and policy effects thereon, not government regulations)

The NE'G' includes no 'guarantee' on electricity affordability. It has no regulatory instrument to do so.

Governments trying to 'guarantee' reliability (whatever its definition) and 'responsibility', cannot also 'guarantee' affordability.

Attempts to suppress prices in this context only induce more quantity restrictions (blackouts), undermining reliability, at least.

Affordability outcomes depend heavily on the investment environment. No 'guarantees' can be given.

4. What does the NE'G' really mean right now? No Energy Guarantee?

We need a lot more detail about what the NE'G' really means.

But at this stage, if we don't know what the precise objectives are, 'No Energy Guarantee' is the best elaboration of the NE'G' acronym.

The missing ingredient: new investment in capacity expansion

Its authors claim the NE'G' will restore investment certainty, induce a flood of new energy projects, and as supply blooms, lower prices.

This is an empirical question, so let's see the evidence. What can we say up-front?