The Nationals need to review their place in Australian politics, too

Independents now threaten the National Party federally and in some states with two of the three 2001 losses going to Independent candidates, both of whom had prior connections with the party. Ironically despite polling nearly one million votes in 1998 and nearly half a million in 2001, One Nation has not been able to defeat a sitting National member of the House.

What then can the National Party do to reverse this electoral decline and avoid perhaps going bankrupt slowly and then suddenly? Merger with the Liberal Party has again been suggested, but research done during the 1980s showed that this could cost the new blended party votes and today would probably produce more Independent victories.

Examining the coalition relationship with the Liberal Party is superficially more attractive but contains traps for the unwary. Unilaterally terminating the coalition while in government would divide the party and leave it open to full scale electoral predation by the Liberal Party. A tactical, mutual suspension while in opposition might be beneficial, but it is interesting to note that while the Victorian Nationals left the coalition for electoral reasons in 1999, their Queensland colleagues are now making overtures to the Liberals to reinstate the coalition.

It is trite but true to say that the Nationals need to reconnect with their constituency, but how? Changes to the party's organisation and preselection methods are likely to be of only marginal benefit. Ideological and policy adjustment are more fundamental but much more difficult to achieve. A reversion to agrarian socialism is not feasible, if for no other reason than that the National parliamentary leaders are as neoliberal as their Liberal Party colleagues. At the same time the Nationals cannot appear to be little more than the Liberals' country cousins.

Leadership substance and style are relevant here. If he hasn’t already done so Mr Anderson might well read Peter Golding’s biography of John McEwen, not for ideological inspiration but for tactical advice. McEwen was Country Party leader and Deputy Prime Minister from 1958 to 1971 and developed the ability to support the coalition arrangement while at the same time criticising publicly some of its policies.

While this led to Cabinet tensions it also gave the Country Party a distinctive image which appealed to its voter base.

While there are dangers in this strategy , Anderson should be comforted by the fact that John Howard needs the 13 National members to remain Prime Minister.