Despite OPEC’s best efforts, the supply/demand dynamic was not effectively addressed.
Increasing U.S. production and higher domestic rig counts have also undercut OPEC’s attempts to limit supply. At the same time, declining U.S. demand for gasoline has been mirrored by declines in Japan, China and the rest of Asia. All OPEC producers, including the Saudis, have actually increased production in the last two months.
Having said that, increases in U.S. shale production, growth in DUCs and global inventory levels matter.
Limits to Nigerian and Libyan production were simply disregarded by OPEC at its May meeting, while both countries have made a surprisingly robust recovery in terms of production. But the domestic U.S. industry has proved so resilient in terms of using cost-effective technology that inventory levels remain elevated.
Who really believed the OPEC charm offensive?
The 25 May OPEC and non-OPEC member meeting in Vienna was bruited to be make or break. But even with the agreed production cuts and their 9-month extension, the cartel has been unable to keep its act together, as compliance issues are paramount and it is obvious that OPEC members are pursuing their own agendas (OPEC Members Pursue Own Agenda As Glut Persists)
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The technical picture was deteriorating.
WTI was unable to break out of its $52-54 upside range. Instead, a pattern of lower highs and lower lows has been apparent since early May. Recently, WTI broke major support at $45, while Brent completed a death cross (Brent Stands at Death’s Door With Bearish Cross Formation: Chart) where the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day, which last occurred in the latter part of 2014.
Straddle this market or not?
Violent price swings in tech stocks, gold, oil and other asset classes are a result of the preponderance of algorithmic trading plus high levels of leverage prevalent across all markets today. What used to be price discovery is now essentially noise.
Just to reiterate what I said on 6 May 2017 (How Much Further Could Oil Prices Fall?), my one dollar/one euro/one pound (name your currency) bet would still be that oil goes back to the high $20s-low $30s as it did in the winter of 2016 before it goes back above $60.
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