Values crucial to Hanson's vote

According to Malcolm Roberts, Pauline Hanson's One Nation senator for Queensland, there are Muslim members of One Nation and there are surgeons and barristers who are members of One Nation.

I bet, too, there are "Asians" and Aborigines.

Pauline Hanson acknowledges that many who vote for her party are on low incomes and some are on welfare.

Analysis by The Australian of polling booths that returned a strong vote for One Nation at last year's federal election suggests a strong correlation between wage stagnation and support for Hanson's party.

But, she says, her supporters are not the type to tolerate "welfare bludgers".

"Right across the board, not only in welfare, I see a big waste of money, and we actually have to rein it back in," she said. "I'm sorry, I can't please everyone, and not everyone's going to agree with me, but I have to make decisions I believe are right for this country and future generations."

One Nation is not a revolt of the toothless, tattooed and white: the "deplorables". This is bigger than class.

Roberts says many of the party's supporters are "sick of the Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra axis". But this is bigger than geography.

Roberts also says: "Tradies are big supporters." And this is bigger than a private enterprise mindset.

Antony Green, the ABC's election analyst, says: "There's an underlying issue of … values that is not related to class. One Nation support taps into that divide."

Roberts believes that he knows what those values are: "A moral compass and a strong work ethic."

This is closer to the mark than class and geography and the employment contract. It shouts - old Labor and conservative Liberal/Nationals - conservative values.

In net terms, One Nation is picking up well-educated conservatives in Liberal seats, less well-educated Liberals and Labor voters in Labor seats, and all three in Nationals seats.

If the Greens are a phenomenon of a split on the Left side of politics, Pauline Hanson's One Nation is a phenomenon of the split on the Right side of politics.

There is, of course, more than One Nation in the new political marketplace.

Catherine Hanrahan's (ABC) analysis suggests that the One Nation vote is higher in areas with more Australian-born voters, higher in disadvantaged suburbs, higher in areas where fewer voters are tertiary-educated, with a weak negative correlation between the number of votes for One Nation and the local Muslim population. I think the latter is nothing more than a co-variation of the earlier measure, Australian-born vote.

Nevertheless, some Muslims are clear about One Nation; seven Perth-based imams are instructing their flock to vote Green in the Legislative Council at the WA election next month. The Greens are running a Muslim convert, Toni Pikos-Sallie, who "fears bigotry" from Hansonites.

Strewth, a Muslim Green calling someone a bigot. But I digress.

The Hanrahan analysis indicated that Nick Xenophon's support in South Australia is far more broadly based and less class-related. It is, of course, biting into Labor's vote, and is straight-out protectionist.

Jacqui Lambie's support is class-related but she also has support, for example, among indigenous voters, something that is not apparent for One Nation.

So different events are going on to explain the entire scatter to independents in the Senate.

Clearly, the big party duopoly is breaking down because there are fewer blind loyalists. And this is a good thing. The market is now footloose and searching for other people to represent their views. There will be many false turns: Clive Palmer comes to mind.

The major parties will need to rely on the independents, who will pick off various constituencies using no more than crude incantations.

There is also change afoot at the policy end.

Tony Abbott, launching James Allan's book Making Australia Right, said, "a book like this can become the thinking person's justification for voting One Nation". Or a call to arms for the Coalition.

Politics is not just about the back-pocket nerve. Security and fairness loom large. For security read "fear of Islam", for fairness read "sick to death of too many takers".

As I write in Allan's book, "Selling stringency and insecurity is not going to win elections." There has to be a moral element to the Right.

None of this suggests that One Nation or other newcomers have any solutions, but they are entitled to search for votes.

Eventually, hopefully, if the politicians have any brains, the political market will shift to accommodate both the needs of the voters and the needs of the nation. Of course the two are not the same.