Solar and wind power lose their shine

So, how are renewables going to cope, even in the right climate? Some researchers have been doing their homework, and all is not well in renewable-land.

There are big hopes for better energy efficiency in heating and cooling buildings. A US study looked at the effect of projected climate change in 10 climate zones across the US and concluded that buildings in half of the zones would miss the target of net-zero energy. “The climate-driven change in heating and cooling energy demand is the main driver for that failure.” (Shen and Lior, Energy, 2016).

There are big hopes for wind energy. A study of projected changes across southern Africa suggests long-term “mean wind resource potential” will “most likely” remain unchanged by 2050. However, “decreased wind speed during winter along the coastal South Africa is a problem because winter is the season of low wind speeds and high electricity demand’’ (Fant, Applied Energy, 2016).

And solar energy? A study of the Black Sea region projects no great disturbance for solar energy. Unfortunately, it excludes key variables for large-scale PV power generation such as atmospheric clearness, components of global solar radiation, reflected radiation related to surrounding surface albedo and sunshine hours at the daily, monthly and yearly scale (Gunderson, Environmental Science & Policy, 2015). Big holes there. Assessments for northern Europe suggest a 14 per cent loss of insolation (Jerez, Nature Communications, 2015).

Mackay was right.

And hydropower? A study of the impact of climate change on hydropower in Brazil, a huge source of energy, found most projects “highly susceptible to changes in water inflow patterns”. Energy will be lower because “the average precipitations are projected to decrease and the drown periods are likely to increase in the Amazonian region” (de Queiroz, Renewable Energy, 2016).

And in Europe? The estimated average annual variations in run-off in the Greater Alpine Region are within ±10 per cent, but up to -30 per cent for the warm-dry scenario in southern France and northern Italy (Wagner, Environmental Earth Sciences, 2017).

And biofuels? In The Philippines, biofuels, as well as the whole agriculture sector, are exposed to risks. It appears that the frequency of occurrence of strong typhoons is growing. Results here are not too bad: about 1 per cent of the biofuel feedstock yield is at risk (Stromberg, Environmental Science & Policy, 2011). Still, some heartache for a poor country.

All in all, renewables become less reliable the more Goldilocks needs them. It is time to rethink our climate response.