Trump not that bad

Under Obama the US was constantly surprised about developments, including the Arab Spring, Syrian Civil War, IS invasion of much of Syria-Iraq and the Taliban's re-expansion into Afghanistan. In the Middle East the US incorrectly anticipated the victory of democratic forces. This failure was tied to Obama's tendency to champion democracy when democracy was (and is) very weak in the Middle East compared to Islamist tendencies (Sharia law, resulting dictatorship and Sunni vs Shia hatreds).

The Trump Contrast

Trump, without prompting, has proactively voiced a whole range of positions that caught political attention and helped him win the Election. On the international stage it is other nations that will need to react to Trump's next moves rather than the US hesitantly reacting to Islamists, Putin and China.

Trump's mooted reconciliation with Putin-Russia is partly aimed at gaining more power over Russia and China in the triangular international order. This will hopefully be reminiscent of Kissinger-Nixon's earlier success with China and Soviet Russia.

The Trump-Putin rapprochement will involve less US sanctions and less condemnation of Russia over Ukraine. In return US-Russian coordinated action against IS in Syria (and even against IS in Iraq) may quickly eliminate IS as a landholder – but not IS as a terrorist nurturer. With Iranian-Russian military relations being in some ways surprisingly close Russia may become an element to strengthen Iranian-US relations.

Russia is not only a European power but an Asia-Pacific power. A China that is viewing improved relations between Russia and the US may be more amenable to lowering its posture in the South China Sea. China may continue its island/reef building but may reduce its Nine-Dash Line stridency.

Trump has statedhe will put economic pressure on China due to China's monetary policies. Trump also wants to pull out of Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks. All this may make the US a protectionist pariah. Trump risks sharp reactions from Wall Street free marketeers and from major regional countries, like Japan and Australia.

Mexico, for its part, is unlikely to react to Trump's US-Mexican border wall pledge by actually subsidising the border wall. Instead Mexico might form a "new" Mexican force to dissuade would-be border crossers. Mexico's National Gendarmerie, which is already involved in border security, might be given more money, power and a new, tougher, name for the US audience.

A next prediction is Trump is unlikely to carry out his threat of significantly reducing US military deployments in Japan and South Korea as any withdrawals would encourage North Korea. Trump may make counter-threats against North Korea's latest Kim.

Finally, in the short-medium term, the US cannot afford the greatly expanded US Navy (from 272 to 350 ships) that Trump pledged. Hurdles include the countervailing pledge to significantly reduce taxes (hence reducing the US Government's revenue base). Spending much more money on rich US weapons making corporations may also put Trump offside with his working class support base.

Conclusion

Trump's appreciation that power is more respected than international law on the international stage stands him in good stead from January 20. Also promising is Trump's ability to time his statements, proactively creating the agenda, rather than reacting to proactive Islamists, Putin and China. International confidence that Trump recognises boundaries may be sorely tested. We'll see how many of the predictions above prove accurate.