Sharpening defences against the blade of terrorism

Daesh's pronouncements for lone wolves to stage more domestic small-scale attacks and its propensity to claim responsibility for such attacks despite its lack of direct links with the perpetrators in several cases suggest the organisation's growing desperation in sustaining its currency within the arena of global jihadism as it sustains military setbacks and a shrinking caliphate. However, these developments hardly suggest that Daesh's days are numbered and could be perceived by jihadists as short-term setbacks that necessitate strategic shifts in a perpetual struggle that would culminate in the end of time as prophesised in Islamic eschatology.

Indeed, such strategic shifts underpin the enduring threat of Al Qaeda which has switched tactics from spectacular attacks in its early days to small-scale attacks with minimal or non-existent coordination with the central organisation. A May 2011 article by The Atlantic dubbed this strategy by Al Qaeda as a "War of a Thousand Cuts", and this "war" will become more complex as Daesh enters the fray. Europol in its EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report (TE-SAT) 2016 highlighted that Al-Qaeda affiliates and more recently Daesh favour lone wolf attacks, and the operational difficulties in preventing such attacks.

Daesh's calls for more lone wolf attacks – including with the use of knife tactics – buttress the larger strategy of utilising returning foreign fighters who bring home with them the intent to stage domestic attacks or cultivate sleeper cells. Lone wolves, empowered by their unpredictability and ease of knife tactics, could engulf the intelligence and frontline resources of law enforcement and security agencies and divert their attention from the more elaborate and damaging stratagems of foreign fighters.

Given the complexity in combating the dual threats of lone wolves and returning foreign fighters, law enforcement and security agencies must beef up their intelligence analysis capabilities and maximise operational cooperation with international partners to keep staying ahead of terrorists. Concurrently, communities must collaborate with the agencies in exercising vigilance and preparedness to prevent and mitigate the impact of terrorist attacks.