Turnbull sworn in as PM but election victory remains pyrrhic

Abbott's invisibility is all the more startling given the extraordinary visibility he now enjoys courtesy of Sky News. With an army of Abbott loyalists at call for endless comment on Paul Murray Live and the Bolt Report, Turnbull's decision to exclude Abbott from cabinet is guaranteed to further inflame conservative discontent. As opposition attacks intensify, and Turnbull's popularity steadily dissipates – much the same way that Abbott's did after 2014 – the stage is set for internal squabbling and disunity.

These tendencies will only be worsened if Turnbull fails to achieve a two seat majority, with the Queensland seat of Herbert still in doubt.

If Turnbull only enjoys a one seat majority, his leadership will be placed on a knife-edge, with only a single renegade Coalition MP required to inflict a humiliating defeat on the floor of the House of Representatives.

These are not the end of Turnbull's problems. The government can expect economic headwinds with low iron ore prices, a firm dollar and the softening of investment and employment in the aftermath of the long-running mining boom. This could lead the Reserve Bank to cut official interest rates to record lows, thereby further inflating metropolitan housing prices and nullifying the cash earnings of self-funded retirees.

Economic difficulties will also emerge with the death of the automotive industry in Victoria and South Australia. Perhaps in anticipation of losing approximately 200,000 value adding jobs, Turnbull yesterday appointed South Australian MP Christopher Pyne to the new portfolio of Minister for Defence Industry. Whether this salesmanship in combination with billions in defence contracts will be enough to halt the expected tide of discontent – and the popularity of Xenophon and NXT – is an open question.

In light of these problems the victor – if there is one from the 2016 election – has been Bill Shorten. Although officially vanquished, he has boosted his public profile, prevented an internal leadership challenge, and positioned himself as a genuine Prime Ministerial alternative. Added to this, Shorten stands united with experienced and increasingly recognisable shadow ministers such asTanya Plibersek, Chris Bowen, Tony Burke and Penny Wong, all of whom are well placed to take the attack to the government when parliament resumes.

Turnbull may have won the election and formed a government, but his victory is pyrrhic. For a Coalition campaign which was predicated upon "stability", a one or two seat majority and politically fractious Senate is a bitter irony which will no doubt exert ongoing destabilisation during the coming electoral cycle.