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85% renewable electricity system cheaper than renewing the current coal and gas

By Ben Rose - posted Thursday, 30 June 2016


*LCoE is levelized cost of energy, a standard costing method using the same costs of capital for all scenarios

Four of the renewable scenarios have no 'base load' (continuous fuelled ) generation and one has a small amount. Open Cycle Gas turbines (OCGT's) are essential in all RE scenarios to provide fast balancing power when storage runs out, particularly in periods of still, cloudy weather in winter. The OCGT's do not generate at all for > 70% of the time when power is provided straight from wind and solar generation and storage. A few will spin in synchronous compensation mode to provide power quality control. Frequency stabilization is provided by batteries, pumped hydro storage or molten salt storage co-fired with biomass (depending on the scenario). The OCGT's are 'aero-derivative' units which are 40 – 46% efficient and able to use either gas or liquid fuels (including bio-oils).

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Nuclear and 'all gas' scenarios were also modelled for comparison. The low-emissions nuclear scenario has an LCoE of $185/MWh, which is $26/MWh higher cost than the most cost effective renewable energy scenario. The 'all gas' scenario was low cost (LCoE $125/MWh) but the CO2 emissions are still 73% of Scenario 6 (BAU), with 9.8 million tCO2e being emitted each year, which is 7.5 million tonnes more than for 85% RE.

SEN's findings for WA's SWIS grid broadly concur with the findings of 3 previous independent renewable energy studies for the Eastern States National Electricity Market (NEM) grid:

AEMO https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/publications/aemo-modelling-outcomes

University of NSW http://www.ies.unsw.edu.au/sites/all/files/profile_file_attachments/LeastCostElectricityScenariosInPress2013.pdf.

Beyond Zero Emissions, https://bze.org.au/zero-carbon-australia-2020

With at least four scientific studies all pointing to the same solutions, we know that clean electricity is clean and affordable for Australia. Densely populated Germany already generates more than 30% renewable electricity and South Australia near 40%. Are we not mature enough as a nation to have a properly informed debate and agree on effective multilateral action to modernize and clean up our electricity grid? Surely our media are capable of reporting the substantial, pertinent facts instead of imagined noise problems from wind turbines located kilometres from the nearest isolated homestead? Or is there a wilful conspiracy of certain powerful corporate interests to prevent this from happening?

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About the Author

Ben Rose is a semi-retired carbon consultant, energy auditor and natural resource development officer. He is a committee member of both the Sustainable Transport Coalition of WA and Sustainable Energy Now; his website is www.ghgenergycalc.com.au

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Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

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