What is John Howard doing in Queensland?

The most sensational theory is that it was done to head off trouble with Peter Costello. In this theory, Howard chooses to make a stand with Watson because Santoro has dumped him in favour of Costello. Howard now sees the whole Queensland apparatus as potentially conspiring to depose him. Certainly, Santoro has dumped Howard for Costello, and will tell anyone he meets in Queen Street whether they have five minutes or not. His latest protégé, Senator George Brandis, is a long-time Howard enemy and Costello booster - further proof.

John Moore is also wrapped up in this theory. He has form when it comes to deposing Howard, and when he was unable to attend the Executive meeting wanted to appoint Groom MP Ian McFarlane in his place. McFarlane is one of the strongest proponents of running in Cunningham, so this was not a neutral act.

The middle-of-the-road theory is that the Prime Minister is genuinely worried that in the case of the Queensland Liberal organisation, organisation is an oxymoron. If he doesn’t take control it will be incapable of running a Federal Campaign in 12 months time. Calls for federal intervention by former state presidents like Paul Everingham tend to support this view.

Whatever the reason, Howard’s intervention was dramatic and unprecedented, involving the federal director, the federal president, the federal party’s pollster and a handpicked delegate to the meeting - Senator John Herron. Howard lost the fight only marginally. If three people had changed their minds it would have gone the other way.

If the two more extreme scenarios are correct Howard needs to continue to engage, and not be dissuaded by this setback. Santoro has picked a difficult ground upon which to fight. Not only is he clearly the aggressor when he prefers to portray himself as the victim, but in the past he has generally allied himself with the pro-National/anti-three-cornered contest elements in the party. These people should be questioning their position, and the closeness of the vote indicates they probably are.

The Queensland Liberal Party needs a leader who is not tainted by the factionalism. This issue opens up potentially new alliances within the party. It must be the only branch where the Prime Minister and the moderates are shoulder to shoulder. Watson has always, until now, been able to talk to both sides. Without another contender, perhaps he is the one who can engineer a truce. The Liberal Party Constitution gives a lot of power to parliamentary leaders. If Howard and Watson can’t pull the Queensland Party together then no one can.