The Coalition must be redefined if non-Labor is to overcome One Nation

The Liberal Party State Executive is meeting tomorrow night (1/3/01). Here are a couple of things that they should consider doing. First, call in the Federal Party. Under the Federal Constitution this can happen when a State Branch is in financial difficulties, as the Queensland Liberal Party is. As noted in an earlier article the Queensland Liberal Party is so factionally riven that it is unlikely to heal itself. As with the ALP in 1974 it needs Federal intervention.

Then the President and Vice-Presidents should also announce that they take full blame for the election result and will not be seeking re-election at the next Liberal Party State Convention, scheduled for June.

That turns the whole thing over to the Federal Party. They need to appoint someone as "receiver manager" to see the show through until June and to start the restructure. Who that person is will shape how successful the intervention is. It cannot be Tony Staley, John Howard’s favourite "administrator", he is regarded as being factionally aligned. John Herron has been mooted as another name. Nice guy, but factionally aligned too. Warwick Parer? Ruled out by being Santo Santoro’s mentor and patron. Party President Shane Stone would be a good choice, but a better choice would be to reach out to the Queensland business community and enlist the help of a senior businessperson who is not factionally aligned and could become Party President after June.

The Queensland Liberal Party has lost its roots in Brisbane, as well as most of its resources. It needs to re-establish them, and a senior businessperson as President would be a signal to the community, particularly that part most crucial to resources, that it was prepared to reattach itself.

The next President of the Liberal Party has also got to recognise that the most important thing is not to worry directly about fixing the existing factions in the party, but to strategically seek out candidates in the seats it must target for the next election. There will be pressure to call pre-selections as early as possible so as to start the task of winning seats as soon as possible. This must be resisted. The effect of early preselections would be to cement factional players in place. Preselections should be held as close to the next elections as possible.

If the right candidates are preselected, the factional problem will fix itself almost overnight. The Liberal Party has suffered over the last few years through low membership and too few centres of power. Eighteen new MLAs with their own bands of fresh and devoted supporters would change all that.

Another risk to the scenario is that the National Party will insist on contesting metropolitan seats in three-cornered contests. It has to realise that three-cornered contests will be very difficult to successfully run. In the aftermath of Beattie’s "Just Vote One" strategy, and with the vote more fractured on the non-Labor side, multiple coalition candidates are a luxury. The Libs and Nats need to negotiate a regional strategy as part of the next Coalition agreement.

Some Liberals and Nationals want to call the Coalition off. That would be a mistake. The last election was won by Beattie on the question of who could actually provide a government. If the Liberal and National Parties part company then not only will there be a One Nation problem to deal with, but a Coalition disunity problem as well. The Liberal Party also needs to consider its position in Parliament. Coalition will deliver it front-bench positions and resources that it would not otherwise get, as well as relevance. Added to that, the Liberal Party can exert influence over the way that the National Party deals with One Nation in Coalition in a way that it can’t on the cross-benches. But that doesn’t mean it should rush into a Coalition either – long courtships make for more secure relationships than brief ones.

Some Liberals such as former Liberal President Paul Everingham, are already trotting out the possibility of a "Pineapple Party" – an amalgamated Liberal and National Party. This would be the worst solution. Modern elections are about market segmentation, not one-size-fits-all retailing. Such a party would prove to regional voters that the Nationals had deserted them as well as confirming city voters in their shift to Labor. It would also give John Howard a huge headache forcing him into a tri-partite coalition with the National Party and the Pineapple Party, and raising the question of stability of government at a federal level.

The most important thing the Coalition needs to do is to decide a joint strategy for dealing with One Nation. The 2001 election should have been about proving that it could beat One Nation and be at the least a good opposition. It wasn’t. As a result, that will be what the next election is about. The challenge will be to convince the National Party rank and file that One Nation is the enemy.

After 44 years of off-and-on-again cohabitation the Liberal and National Parties are getting another chance. But, as Henry Ford would have wanted to know, will they do it more intelligently this time?