Turnbull’s 'caretaker' prime ministership: a looming electoral defeat?

That is not the end of it though. The attempt to place justification for the double dissolution election at the feet of the Senate over the ABCC bill is seen by many as a ruse to reach a desperately needed early polling date. As the Liberal Party’s vote collapses, the confected “rush” to the polls is appearing self-serving, panicked and weak.

As if this was not enough, Turnbull has inflicted some spectacular own goals. The recently floated proposal to transfer the responsibility for income tax to the states left many pundits stunned. How could a political veteran of Turnbull’s stature orchestrate such an untimely disaster? With an election looming, policy on the run, policy defeat, policy retreat, and policy prevarication are the last things that Turnbull and the Liberal Party needed. The income tax disaster was completely unnecessary, needlessly bleeding away votes and in the longer term, damaging Turnbull’s standing as an able and decisive leader.

Added to these woes, there is dissent in the Liberal Party’s ranks, typified by Turnbull and Morrison awkwardly entering a motor vehicle together in the aftermath of controversy over the budget’s timing and “inner” and “outer” cabinet sanctums.  

Where does all this leave the Liberal Party and Malcolm Turnbull? Not in a good place. What should have been a comfortable victory in 2016 is turning into a looming electoral defeat. If the present trend continues, it is possible that Bill Shorten could be the next Australian Prime Minister.

Unlike Turnbull, Shorten has made some initial forays into meaningful economic reform by announcing changes to negative gearing. However imperfect and incomplete these proposals might be, they are at least an attempt to do something about a growing blight on Australian society: the complete unaffordability of housing in metropolitan centres. On issues such the environment, Shorten, unlike Turnbull, has been able to marry his inner convictions with his party’s policies. And unlike Turnbull who is mired in party dissent and bickering, Shorten appears to preside over a unified team, with especially strong support from his canny shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen.

Can Turnbull’s electoral fortunes be revived? At this stage it is certainly possible but much will hinge on the impending budget. It will be a political tightrope walk – too much economic reform and the electorate may rebel; too little and the perception of Turnbull’s caretaker Prime Ministership will be further solidified.