Mean, tricky, out of touch and not listening

The Hawke/Keating government was particularly good at this. When you look at the changes it made and the electors it upset, its achievement in implementing those changes at the same time as maintaining its popularity is way in front of the Howard government. An integral part of its political communication was what I will call the Arthurian model, but which you might just as well call "Good Cop/Bad Cop". Hawke sat at the Round Table preaching unity through consensus while he sent his knights out to do the hard and nasty work. None was better than Keating, and he gloried in it. As a result, discontent with the government could be earthed out through members of the ministry, rather than the Prime Minister. This works well for the King while he is there, but doesn’t help any of the hapless knights to hold the kingdom should they succeed to the crown.

Do thoughts like these exercise Costello’s mind? They might, because he seems to be excessively concerned about popularity. Even if they don’t, his reaction to this leak shows that he is likely to be tender when it comes to making the big hits. Howard has only ever really had two politically capable senior ministers – Costello and Reith. Reith is somewhat sidelined at the moment because of the phone card affair, in a portfolio – Defence – which is unlikely to affect votes one way or the other in the next election, and defending a highly marginal seat. That leaves Costello. As a result Howard finds himself having to do the hard and dirty work, and copping the odium for it, which tends to drag the whole government down.

The facts of the matter are that, despite what the Queensland Liberal members say, the government might be tricky, but it is not mean. As Labor gleefully points out, it is now spending a greater proportion of GDP than any previous government, including the much maligned one of Gough Whitlam. Not the sign of a scrooge. Its problems are ones of perception and implementation rather than absolute substance. Liberal Party image-makers appear to have recognised that and are trying to remake Howard. That Costello is being precious about his image confounds that strategy. Not only that, but it forces the government to be more profligate than it should be. The trick to making government decisions look better is to show them in the light of a much worse alternative. It is the Treasurer’s job in these economically driven times to provide that much worse alternative, thus allowing the government to drive a better bargain with the electorate and give less back.

Twelve months ago the government was looking at a substantial surplus. Now, courtesy of retreats, that surplus has probably been cut to around zero. This has happened because it has been forced to give in on too many points. It is overwhelmingly probable that a large surplus was a major plank in the Government’s re-election strategy. Whatever the economic merits of surpluses they are good for one thing – tax cuts – and it is a Liberal Party tradition to go to elections offering large tax cuts rather than increases in government programmes. This must be a good strategy, for it kept non-Labor governments in power in this country for two-thirds of the last century!

There is a better-than-even chance that the Liberal Party will lose the next Federal election, but they are not yet beyond hope. If they can consolidate and concentrate on exposing the Opposition’s positions at the same time as minimising their own exposures it is possible they will prevail. If they do not win the next election Peter Costello is likely never to become Prime Minister.

However, if Costello continues to sulk in his tent, the Government’s chances of winning the next election are diminished, and with them his chances of ever becoming Prime Minister. It is time for him to fess up and shape up, forget about the personal factional manoeuvering and concentrate on the mêlée. Faint heart never a fair hand won, and neither do primping and preening win elections.