Some themes for 2016?

It recently fell to below $30 a barrel and is now climbing to the mid $30s but that's a long way down from over $100 less than 12 months ago. So whatever happened to all that 'peak oil' talk and where are those forecasters now? It's hard to see things staying this way, despite what the hopeful and the faithful believe might happen with renewables. Oil is used in everything, from fertilizer, to plastics, to energy. Plus it's an unbeatably efficient form of energy and the world seems to have plenty of it, and the ability to find more once the price gets to around $60 a barrel. I'm no expert on commodities but the price of something so essential to our economy is going to have to figure prominently in the news media as the year unfolds, surely?

Ageing.

Demography is destiny. In Australia, we are still to confront the realities of how our ageing population is going to impact on us all. More retirees – the majority on limited incomes or who are pension reliant – being supported by relatively fewer taxpayers, is not a good formula but it's what we are faced with. Plenty of businesses will find opportunity servicing the upper income end of the retiree and aged care cohort but few are talking solutions for the majority on lower incomes for whom commercial solutions are simply unaffordable. There will have to be significant changes to retirement policy and tax treatment of the family home for pensioners will probably become part of that. Expect this debate to become increasingly prominent as taxpayers resist tax increases to pay for pensioners and pensioners vehemently resist any dilution of their benefits.

Immigration and population.

Angela Merkel looked at Germany's shrinking workforce and population predictions and opened the door to arrivals on an unprecedented scale. Was she hoping to plug a workforce gap? Will Australia likewise look to importing a solution to its need for more working age taxpayers (and maybe in the hope that some rapid fire population growth will stimulate the economy) by increasing immigration intake? The 'big Australia' debate never really went away and perhaps it will make itself felt again this year. Given our strong views both ways, and the racial nerve that often flares, this is a topic that will at least bubble away, occasionally surfacing in a blaze of heated opinion.