Will the Paris Climate Talks be too little and too late?

Among the tabled INDCs, Mexico promised to peak its emissions by 2026 and reduce emissions to 25 percent below a business-as-usual level by 2030, or to 40 percent below if it receives technical and financial assistance. South Korea promised a 37-percent cut from business as usual, while Japan promised an absolute emissions cut of 26 percent from 2013 levels. Ethiopia, in one of the most ambitious pledges from a poor nation, pledged to curb emissions sufficiently to bring them back below 2010 levels by 2030, which it says will represent a 64-percent cut from business as usual.

Why do countries feel able to make such commitments? None expect to suffer serious economic harm as a result. The main reason is emerging trends in how the world generates its energy.

Most important is the end of the coal boom. The contribution of the dirtiest of the main fossil fuels to global energy production soared in the past decade, largely on the back of Chinese economic growth. But with Chinese coal-burning now apparently past its peak, many energy experts believe the world as a whole is close to "peak coal." Coal is costing more compared to other energy sources, and is a major contributor to choking smogs. Any alternative is better for the atmosphere, whether natural gas, nuclear, or renewables. Renewables in particular are becoming more economically competitive. The cost of solar energy is down 80 percent in the past decade, largely as a result of Chinese manufacture of cheap photovoltaic panels.

The Grantham Research Institute of the London School of Economics - which is headed by Lord (Nicholas) Stern, the former chief economist at the World Bank - concluded in July that most of the emissions cuts and other mitigation needed to decarbonize the global economy and stay within the 2-degree limit "is likely to be nationally beneficial, even leaving aside the climate benefits."

The presumption among governments that economic growth inevitably leads to a rapid increase in CO2 emissions is fading fast – and with it their antipathy of accepting limits on those emissions. The days of climate negotiations being dogged by battles over "burden sharing" may be receding.

Are the current pledges enough to keep global warming below 2 degrees C? Nobody can be certain. There are too many scientific uncertainties about exactly how sensitive the atmosphere is to growing concentrations of greenhouse gases. We could get lucky, but equally there might be tipping points that could suddenly accelerate warming.

Most analysts agree that what is currently on the table is unlikely to be sufficient. Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a consortium of researchers that includes Hare's Climate Analytics, calculates that the current pledges put annual global emissions of all greenhouse gases on track to rise from the current roughly 50 billion tons to 53 to 57 billion tons in 2025, and 55 to 59 billion tons in 2030. It reckons an optimum track to 2 degrees C would require emissions below 40 billion tons by 2030.

Higher emissions between now and 2030 would not inevitably take the world beyond 2 degrees, but they would certainly make the task more expensive and disruptive. It would probably leave the world requiring emissions cuts of more than 5 percent each year after 2030. Many technology analysts say that is next to impossible.

The Paris agreement is likely to include clauses that would allow stronger targets on the basis of new science, but the evidence is that the existing science already shows nations should be aiming higher. Nonetheless, diplomats expect the conference to sign off on the INDCs largely unaltered.

The debates that are likely to dominate the Paris talks will not be about emissions but about money - to help developing nations reduce their emissions, adapt to inevitable climate change, and be compensated for damage caused by extreme weather.

In Copenhagen in 2009, rich nations agreed to establish a Green Climate Fund to help poorer nations both cut emissions and adapt to climate change by building national resilience. They promised to collectively put $100 billion annually into the fund beginning in 2020.

But there appears to be backsliding. According to a recent analysis by the aid charity Oxfam, less than a fifth of this has so far been pledged from public funds. Instead, rich nations are talking increasingly about topping up with private finance. A statement from the G7 leaders summit in Germany in June said that "mobilizing of private sector finance is crucial" to the fund, and would "unlock the required investments in low-carbon technology, as well as in building resilience."