Will Kiribati be the new Atlantis?

The people of Kiribati live on top of their water supply, a freshwater lens which, being less dense than seawater, floats on top of it. The amount of fresh water in the lens is a balance between what is added and what is withdrawn or lost. The lens is only replenished by rain. If there is no rain, the fresh water will eventually slowly mix with the salt water and dissipate. When there is rain, a floating lens of fresh water forms, which goes up and down with the underlying sea water.Rising sea levels will not cause the fresh water to mix with the sea water. The lens will simply rise on top of it.

Human activities can alter the level of the fresh water, or pollute it. Over pumping will deplete the level. The crowded population of South Tarawa are building toilets and burying their dead in close proximity to the lens, a major source of contamination.

In an aid project on one of the islands the provision of solar powered pumps caused the salt water to rise, making the supply of fresh water unusable. Several hundred pit toilets were shipped to another atoll, but they were unsealed, resulting in faeces draining directly into the fresh-water reserves below. Ironically they were supplied by the UN as part of their Millennium Development Goals.

Climate change is not endangering Kiribati, human activities and overcrowding are.

Kiribati President Anote Tong claims that "This entire country is about to be wiped out by climate change… We don't have everything working here like it should… I know that. But our problems are rooted in climate change… This is not caused by us. This is caused by you."

We should put these claims to the test.

A different picture altogether is presented in an official report which can be accessed at http://www.climate.gov.ki/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/6_SOUTH-TARAWA-revised-2012.pdf. Ironically this report was prepared by the President's own office – one can only assume that he has not read it.

"Climate change is not the main cause of coastal erosion, water shortages or overcrowding. Other issues, especially population growth and the move to Western lifestyles, are having a more immediate impact… The high population density and on-going population growth of South Tarawa are exacerbating the already serious problems of waste disposal, sanitation, and environmental pollution."

It notes "[the] lack of a water reserve management plan linked to a lack of will for curbing unacceptable practices [is] affecting lens water quality."

It also points out that "the long term outlook for the whole of Kiribati looks uncertain as more recent scientific evidence suggests faster sea level rise than the IPCC Scenarios." These scenarios predict varying levels of inundation that may occur by 2070, with risk levels ranging from extreme to low. At no stage is it suggested that the nation as a whole will sink by 2030.

International aid money pours into Kiribati, and its dispersal is open to serious allegations of misappropriation. Just as this money pours into the capital, the people pour into the area in the hope of benefitting from the cash flow. Despite protestations from the President that he is doing everything possible to stem the flow, the population is predicted to double by 2030, just as the islands are scheduled to disappear beneath the waves.

Kiribati has three major assets. Its geographic position makes it an ideal site for a space station, which is why the Chinese built one there. It became a key element in their space program. It was also an ideal spot to spy on the similar activities of other nations, notably the USA.