Will Kiribati be the new Atlantis?

Kiribati is promoted as a dramatic example of how rising sea levels due to climate change will cause the disappearance of the islands of the Pacific. It's a claim not necessarily supported by science and practical observation.

Three pillars at the ancient marketplace of Pozzuoli, near Naples, led to much speculation among geologists of the 19^th century. The activities of marine mollusks on these marble columns seemed to indicate that they had been submerged, then rose again, all within a period of a few thousand years. It was believed by many that this indicated rises and falls in the sea level.

Now we know what actually happened. The area subsided below sea level in Roman times, was uplifted around 700-800AD, subsided again from around 1500 until 1583, when it rose again, then subsided, then rose again. Between 1969 and 1973 the land rose by about 1.7 metres, subsided slightly over the next decade until between 1982 and 1994 it rose some 2 metres.

This is the phenomenon known as bradyseism – the earth's surface can rise and fall without being subject to violent earthquakes.

The UK is tilting – Scotland is rising while southern regions sink. Parts of the English coastline have sunk 6 metres in the last 6500 years. Scotland could rise up to 10cm over the next century, offsetting any sea level rise that might be caused by global warming.

As Australia drifted north over the last 50 million years or so, the land rose and fell. Professor Dietmar Müller of the School of Geosciences at the University of Sydneysays "At the moment we are focused on sea level changes caused by melting ice. But for large portions of the Earth's history there was no ice, however sea level still fluctuated substantially".

Pacific islands form in different ways. The Hawaian and Marquesas Islands were formed as tectonic plates moved over volcanic hot spots. Over a few million years these islands eroded away and become coral atolls, an ongoing process which is dramatically obvious when you visit the area.

Professor Paul Kench of Auckland University co-authored a paper with Dr Arthur Webb, an expert on coastal processes. They concluded that the evidence does not support the idea that the islands of the Pacific are sinking as a result of global warming. In fact, most of them are growing, some dramatically. The three most densely populated islands of Kiribati have grown between 12.5 to 30 per cent since the 1950s.

This would not have surprised Charles Darwin, who proposed a simple theory to explain atoll formation – atolls begin as a fringing reef growing around a volcanic island. If this island sinks beneath the ocean, the reef continues to grow upwards and an atoll forms. His theory was put forward in 1837, but was not proven until 1951 when drilling at Eniwetok Atoll in the Marshall Islands in connection atom bomb testing found the base rock that Darwin predicted.

Journalists visiting Kiribati are often invited to take the two hour boat ride to Tebungnako, a village on Abaiang Atoll to view 'hard evidence' of the ravages of rising sea levels. In 1992 a Canadian report found that El Nino events were responsible for the large waves inundating the coastline. It also found that the sea walls constructed by the islanders exacerbated the damage.

Obviously inundation is not necessarily linked to sea levels, and sea levels are not necessarily linked to global warming. Statistics taken out of context are often meaningless and misleading.

Sea levels are rising, very gradually, but Kiribati and other islands are outgrowing the rise. You can view the relevant BOM statistics for sea levels over the last 24 years at Betio at www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO70060/IDO70060SLI.pdf.

The people of Kiribati live on top of their water supply, a freshwater lens which, being less dense than seawater, floats on top of it. The amount of fresh water in the lens is a balance between what is added and what is withdrawn or lost. The lens is only replenished by rain. If there is no rain, the fresh water will eventually slowly mix with the salt water and dissipate. When there is rain, a floating lens of fresh water forms, which goes up and down with the underlying sea water.Rising sea levels will not cause the fresh water to mix with the sea water. The lens will simply rise on top of it.

Human activities can alter the level of the fresh water, or pollute it. Over pumping will deplete the level. The crowded population of South Tarawa are building toilets and burying their dead in close proximity to the lens, a major source of contamination.

In an aid project on one of the islands the provision of solar powered pumps caused the salt water to rise, making the supply of fresh water unusable. Several hundred pit toilets were shipped to another atoll, but they were unsealed, resulting in faeces draining directly into the fresh-water reserves below. Ironically they were supplied by the UN as part of their Millennium Development Goals.

Climate change is not endangering Kiribati, human activities and overcrowding are.

Kiribati President Anote Tong claims that "This entire country is about to be wiped out by climate change… We don't have everything working here like it should… I know that. But our problems are rooted in climate change… This is not caused by us. This is caused by you."

We should put these claims to the test.

A different picture altogether is presented in an official report which can be accessed at http://www.climate.gov.ki/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/6_SOUTH-TARAWA-revised-2012.pdf. Ironically this report was prepared by the President's own office – one can only assume that he has not read it.

"Climate change is not the main cause of coastal erosion, water shortages or overcrowding. Other issues, especially population growth and the move to Western lifestyles, are having a more immediate impact… The high population density and on-going population growth of South Tarawa are exacerbating the already serious problems of waste disposal, sanitation, and environmental pollution."

It notes "[the] lack of a water reserve management plan linked to a lack of will for curbing unacceptable practices [is] affecting lens water quality."

It also points out that "the long term outlook for the whole of Kiribati looks uncertain as more recent scientific evidence suggests faster sea level rise than the IPCC Scenarios." These scenarios predict varying levels of inundation that may occur by 2070, with risk levels ranging from extreme to low. At no stage is it suggested that the nation as a whole will sink by 2030.

International aid money pours into Kiribati, and its dispersal is open to serious allegations of misappropriation. Just as this money pours into the capital, the people pour into the area in the hope of benefitting from the cash flow. Despite protestations from the President that he is doing everything possible to stem the flow, the population is predicted to double by 2030, just as the islands are scheduled to disappear beneath the waves.

Kiribati has three major assets. Its geographic position makes it an ideal site for a space station, which is why the Chinese built one there. It became a key element in their space program. It was also an ideal spot to spy on the similar activities of other nations, notably the USA.

Kiribati, in common with many of the other island states, has a seat at the UN. President Tong came to power in an election where the Chinese station was the major election issue, amid accusations of bribery on both sides. The Taiwanese supported Tong openly, donating generously to his cause. The general view was that it was American money. Within days of assuming office, Tong recognized Taiwan, thus effectively ending relations with China.

It would be more than naïve to deny that America was then, and still is, playing an active, if clandestine role in Kiribati politics.

Kiribati is surrounded by rich fishing grounds. When President Tong announced the formation of the Phoenix Islands Protected Area, he was hailed as an ecological hero, and there is an ongoing campaign to nominate him for a Nobel Peace Prize. Recently only 3% of the area was actually protected, and the evidence is that the grounds are being extensively over-fished at a rate that is unsustainable. Tong is demanding that the rest of the world pay compensation for the lost revenue. The pricing and allocation of fishing licences is highly contentious. An Australian official, when asked whether Kiribati was being exploited by the commercial fishing interests is said to have replied "Not exploited, raped.'

Barak Obama is an enthusiastic supporter of Tong's PIPA gift to the world.

Climate change, for which read catastrophic anthropogenic global warming, is enthusiastically supported by those who benefit from it – politicians, big business (especially energy companies), the Greens and academics amongst them.

In December representatives will gather in Paris to spend time debating this issue. They will base their discussions on the assumption that the world is warming due to a single factor, which, being caused by humans, can be controlled by humans through appropriate legislation.

Most of the delegates will argue that global warming should be limited to 2 degrees. Tong and others will demand that it be limited to 1.5 degrees.

They will argue that based on their particular interpretation of their particular version of their particular data the world is in grave danger, some time in the near future. They will not agree to any practical actions to change that outcome.

Meanwhile, they will turn a blind eye to the many thousands of people that die every day, or suffer unnecessary hardship, and whose plight might be somewhat ameliorated if the money spent on controlling the climate were to be spent on more practical and achievable goals. The people are mere pawns in a campaign which hides the pursuit of power and profit behind a facade of concern for their welfare.

President Tong is regarded as the exemplar of these climate change advocates. He struts the world stage while his people and their environment suffer. It's time we suggested that he, and others of like mind, spend more time at home, facing the real challenge of real issues.