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A multifaceted analysis of the recent Iranian nuclear deal

By Liang Nah - posted Wednesday, 30 September 2015


1) The termination of all UN Security Council resolutions implementing sanctions relating to Iran's nuclear programme.

2) The abolishment of all EU economic and financial sanctions linked to the aforementioned nuclear programme.

3) The revoking of all U.S. sanctions earlier implemented, which were designed to penalise Iran over its nuclear activities.

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Fundamentally, the lifting of sanctions would boost the moribund Iranian economy, allowing it to export millions of barrels of oil which would earn valuable export revenue for Iran. Moreover, foreign investment to improve the extractive productivity of Iranian oil resources can now flow in, while global consumer goods exporters would be able to tap into the 81 million strong Iranian consumer base, who favour imported products. As for Tehran's security worries, the termination of all nuclear related sanctions against Iran, economic or otherwise points towards a substantial reduction of tensions, specifically U.S.-Iranian tensions, given that nations are most unlikely to initiate hostile actions in the wake of sanctions lifting. This is important because Washington has previously classified Iran as an adversary state, a member of the "Axis of Evil" in former President Bush's State of the Union address in 2002.

Turning to the norms-based component of the JCPOA breakthrough, it should be noted that even in the face of the critical need to relieve sanctions induced economic isolation and effect state/regime threat amelioration, there still exists the issue of fierce Persian national pride which manifested itself in the right to indigenously enrich uranium. Correspondingly, a strong nuclear non-proliferation norm needs to exist to counter any nuclear based nationalist motivations. This can be found in the institutionalised Muslim identity of Tehran's theocratic government, in that Iran has openly declared that it is not developing nuclear weapons based on moral religious grounds. This was and is enforced via a fatwa or edict of Islamic law which serves as a norms-based justification to placate any pro-nuclear societal or leadership factions.

Conclusion: The JCPOA is not simply a case of Economic Arm Twisting

As argued above, Tehran's signing of the JCPOA is not merely driven by economic imperatives, but also sustained by national security priorities and the legitimisation provided by both institutionalised (via the NPT) and religious nuclear non-proliferation norms. Finally, the JCPOA employs economic penalties supported by non-proliferation norms to ensure Iranian compliance, as its economic benefits would be denied to Iran if its government ever reinvigorates its nuclear programme. Essentially, international nuclear non-proliferation norms will deny Iranian integration into the global economy, as long as Tehran is seen as harbouring a desire to acquire atomic munitions.

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About the Author

Liang Tuang Nah is an Associate Research Fellow at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

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Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

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