Methane hydrates: China's real South China Sea goal?

At this point, it's worth pointing out that developing methane hydrates may ultimately prove either technologically impossible or economically unviable. The reason is that methane is a very powerful greenhouse gas, much more powerful than CO2.

As a result, even with the best technology, the methane emissions released from developing deep sea methane hydrates, if subject to carbon costs, may render investment in the resource uneconomic.

What this means is that a policy of unilateral territorial assertion of sovereignty over South China Sea areas with methane hydrates may not make sense on either economic, military or diplomatic grounds.

That's because developing methane hydrates may create large greenhouse gas costs, large military outlays to ensure security in disputed waters and/or create large diplomatic fallout hindering Chinese cooperations with her southern neighbors in other areas.

Given the above, creating Joint Development Areas with the Philippines and Vietnam seems a more sensible outcome. It can also set an attractive precedent for resolving other issues in the South China sea, such as fisheries, rights of transit, people smuggling and humanitarian relief.

All of the above have been cited by China to date as motives for its construction of military-style infrastructure on strategically located but contested islands.

These include Mischief Reef, Gaven Reef, Hughes Reef, Subi Reef, Fiery Cross Reef, Johnson Reef, and Cuarteron Reef.

The lack of credibility with which these claims have been received in the international community has led the United States to hint it may engage in maneuvers near disputed islands to demonstrate the principle of 'free passage' - which China supports.

China also potentially faces an adverse ruling by a UN-panel next year on the Philippines claim.

Were both of the above to occur, it will put more political pressure on China to make its intent in the South China Sea more clear.

Negotiating with neighbors on Joint Development Areas would create a win-win outcome, and defuse what may escalating rapidly into a regional diplomatic crisis.