OPEC divorce and self-destruction thanks to Saudi oil strategy?

This implies total domestic production at ~16 mmbl/day, 3.5 mmbl/day than capacity), given domestic consumption at 3,330,000 barrels/day (IEA). Were production total IEA estimated capacity, 12.5 mmbl/day, exports could reach ~9.2 mmbl/day—2.9 mmbl/day more than it currently exports. $67.50/ barrel would be needed to generate the same revenue as in 2014. (In current market conditions, increasing exports by 2.9 mmbl/day would drive global prices below the August 26 OPEC basket price of $40.51).

Since 2011, the Saudi share of global output has ranged from 10.2 percent (2011) to a maximum of 10.5 (2012), and averaged 10.4 percent in the 1H 2015. Producing at current maximum output (~12.5 mmbl/day) equates to a 13 percent global share. The following table shows the Saudi output required to maintain a 13 percent share of global output through 2020, assuming 2016 output at 98 mmbl/day and net increases of 500 mbls/day annually through 2020. (At 16 mmbl/day, the Saudi share would be 16.5 percent).

Reaching both 12.5 mmbl/day and ~16 mmbl/day output levels would require a forceful offensive against other OPEC members—in other words, the OPEC outsiders. Since 2011, OPEC's share of global crude output has ranged from ~39 percent-to-41 percent. The following table shows that the increase in Saudi share of OPEC output that a 13 percent and 16.5 percent global share would require through 2020, assuming the Saudi increase in output came exclusively from OPEC, and taking into account the production increases the Saudi's Kuwaiti and UAE allies have announced (the distribution of the increases by year is arbitrary).

If You're A Free Range Oil Producer, Do You Produce Even More Even If It's Irrational?

A recent article on Oilprice.com lays out a strong case for Saudi maintaining its current offensive against other oil producers.

This article shows that the Saudis cannot achieve, or even come close to, their estimated 2014 net export revenue if they prolong their current strategy. They can't achieve the output necessary at a $50/barrel OPEC basket price (16.5 mmbl/day), and they are unlikely to achieve the $67.50 OPEC basket price they need at their 12.5 mmbl/day maximum production capacity, since the additional 2.4 mmbl/day output (and exports) over 1H 2015 average output would drive prices further down.

This doesn't mean the Saudis won't stay the course despite its peril to their own situation. To repeat the two modified Keynes quotes at the beginning of this article:

A government can stay irrational longer than it can stay solvent.

Even in the short term, you're dead, if you commit suicide.