Democratic transition in the Congo

The Congo is rich in fertile land, expansive river systems, and with unimaginable mineral wealth; all from a country that is the second largest, and fourth most populous in Africa - a country the size of Western Europe; and ideally located in the heart of the continent with significant overlapping interests with its neighbours. However, it is for these reasons that Congolese statesmen, prior to Joseph Kabila, have tended to fear their own country. Presented with such an opportunity for self-enrichment, Congolese leaders came to see their own people as a threat rather than an asset. Successive dictatorships went to extraordinary lengths in order to keep the institutions of the state, civil society, and indeed the military, in a permanently weakened condition.

By the time Joseph Kabila came to power, the Congolese state had decayed into nothingness. Without the prospect of a career, the best young talent had long since left the country, soldiers unpaid for years had begun selling their equipment on the black market and looting the local population, militias that had been hastily armed in order to help defend against foreign armies were now holding villages hostage and enflaming ethnic tensions, all the while the country was descending into an ever-deepening humanitarian crisis – the vast majority of deaths in the Congo have been the result of starvation, malnutrition and disease.

The terms have shifted slightly – where people once fought over rubber, gold, timber, ivory and slaves, they now fight over diamonds, copper, cobalt, cassiterite, columbite, uranium and other rare-earth minerals – however, nothing of substance has changed; what Joseph Kabila inherited was merely the empty shell of a country. And this is why his legacy should not be underrated: Joseph Kabila has given the Congo something it has never had before – the tenuous beginnings of a democratic legacy.

After the peace deal was concluded in 2003, Joseph Kabila set about producing a new constitution, and rather than pressing it through with Presidential decree, it was implemented through a referendum in 2005. In 2006 Kabila won the first-ever open Presidential elections with 58 percent of the vote, and in 2011 he was re-elected.

But here is where it all starts to get a little troubling. Despite the steps that Kabila has taken, there have been serious claims of electioneering in the aftermath of both his victories – many of which seem legitimate. As concerning as this might be, it is fairly insignificant compared to what is coming. The country is currently gearing up, albeit slowly, for a new round of Presidential elections next year, and Kabila has a choice – try to re-engineer the constitution in order to allow him to remain as President, or respect the letter of the constitution, accept the mandated term limit of the Presidency, and allow for the first democratic transition in Congolese history.

There have been concerns, particularly regarding the current construction of the electoral roll and the associated implementation of the national consensus. Analysts, behaving more like soothsayers, are agonizingly trying to find anything of deeper significance in such details. The Congo, and indeed the region, is looking and hoping for indications that its nominally democratic leader intends to remain democratic - despite such an intention requiring that he now cede power. However, as of now, there is nothing to suggest that Kabila has any intention other than to step aside.

By treating the Congo as something to govern rather than something to own, Joseph Kabila has already differentiated himself from his predecessors. The most important thing he can do for his country now, is to leave quietly when his time is up.