The rise of Kurdistan

This regional attachment to the greater Iraqi state was, at least in part, due to economic considerations. Colloquially known as the 'Kurdish Jerusalem', the town of Kirkuk and its two oil fields have long been seen as part the Kurdish nation. However, after it was seized during Saddam's era, its status in the new Iraq has been open to debate. With ownership status of this asset left intentionally 'undecided', Kurdistan reintegrated within the new Iraqi state due to economic necessity.

It is here that the recent rise of the terrorist organisation 'Islamic State' and the subsequent collapse of the Iraqi army, has offered Kurdistan an unlikely opportunity for national realisation.

The failure of the Iraqi state to maintain its borders, and provide human security within them, legitimised the humanitarian seizure of Kirkuk by Kurdish forces. By exposing the institutional failures of the new Iraqi state, and by setting the Kurds up as the prime recipients of foreign military armaments, Islamic State has provided the conditions for the reincorporation of Kirkuk into Kurdistan, and as such have supplied the impetus for Kurdish independence.

Now economically independent, the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government, Massoud Barzani, declared the overcoming of the last remaining hurdle to Kurdish statehood, "We waited for 10 years for Baghdad to solve Article 140 [referring to Kirkuk]...."now it's accomplished because the Iraqi army pulled out and our Peshmerga forces had to step in. So now the problem is solved. There will be more no more conversation about it".

Importantly, Turkey who had long opposed Kurdish independence in Iraq, (previously threatening invasion if referendums on independence were to be held, for fear of its impact upon its own Kurdish population), indicated a change of policy in a message delivered through a government spokesman, "The Kurds of Iraq can decide for themselves the name and type of the entity they are living in,"… "The Kurds, like any other nation, will have the right to decide their fate".

Indeed, based on past hostilities it unlikely that an independent Iraqi-Kurdistan would form any sort of meaningful alliance with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in Turkey, nor forge any national yearning where there might previously have been an absence.

In response, Barzani later declared "We are no longer capable of doing anything. We offered everything we could for the sake of Iraq, but we should not keep waiting for an unknown fate"; and instructed the Kurdish parliament to prepare for a referendum on Kurdish independence, in the process dismissing calls from US secretary of state John Kerry to remain within Iraq.

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has long been a beacon for moderation and tolerance within the Middle-East. Kurdistan has consistently operated as a willing conduit for international diplomacy, and have proven to be reliable participants in humanitarian operations such as that against Islamic State. Furthermore, its Shia, Christian and Jewish minorities exist communally integrated and largely undisturbed, the Kurdish parliament allocates a quarter of its seats for women and, within a region beset by international travel warnings, has managed to develop a viable, though embryonic, tourist industry.

Explained by Harvard professor Michael Ignatieff in his seminal analysis of nationalism 'Blood and Belonging', "statelessness is a state of mind, and it is akin to homelessness". Statelessness for Kurdistan has meant an existence denied of self-identity, and a life devoid of security. It is ahistorical to imagine that Kurdish national belonging can in any way be satisfied without a corresponding, and internationally, recognised state. Despite the coming the events, what is guaranteed is that Kurdish nationalism will not diminish, and sooner or later will need to be fulfilled by statehood – the rise of Islamic State, and the associated confluence of events seems to be just the moment for that fulfilment.