Attack the best defence

Indonesians are spiritual people and many are superstitious. The culture is rich with stories of predictions and curses, omens and supernatural events that are embedded in the belief systems of millions, even those who are well-educated.

Prabowo is backed by some of the richest men in Indonesia. Tycoons, like Aburizal Bakrie, also control the most popular free-to-air TV stations in a country where electors get their information from the screen, not papers. Some of this 'news' has been scandalously biased against Jokowi and blatantly false.

When the East Timorese voted four-to-one for independence in the 1999 Referendum the Indonesian forces, having earlier convinced themselves that change was impossible, destroyed buildings, infrastructure, crops – and almost 1,500 civilians - using para-militaries to carry out a scorched earth campaign.

Prabowo wasn't there – he'd run away to exile in Jordan after being kicked out of the military for exceeding orders during an unsuccessful bid a year earlier to put down a pro-democracy protest in Jakarta. It's alleged he was involved in the torture of activists and the disappearance of 13, but has never been formally charged.

Despite his bad human rights record Prabowo won votes by claiming he had the strength to make things happen – and that his rival, a former furniture salesman with no connections to Soeharto, was not a fit and proper candidate.

There's little doubt Jokowi is a democrat and appears to be a humble and decent bloke, but is he up to the task of running the world's fourth largest nation facing enormous economic and social issues?

He could grow into the job but so far his speeches have been embarrassingly uninspiring. As the Plan B candidate selected when his sponsor Megawati Soekarnoputri was persuaded not to stand, Jokowi is looking more and more like the Accidental President.

According to Australian academic Gerry Van Klinken " … there is no denying that Joko Widodo is no intellectual with a clear analysis of what needs to change to make Indonesia a more equal, more prosperous, more fair society."

Blunt analysis of the democrats' golden boy is rarely heard, for in their euphoria Jokowi supporters have canonised their man.

The truth is Jokowi will need widespread sympathy, backing from mongrel political operators and a great deal of luck to make any difference to the lives of ordinary Indonesians for he'll be up against some towering barriers. Foremost is the Legislative Assembly (DPR) which is already loaded against the President elect by two-to-one.

Despite regular predictions that Prabowo's 'permanent coalition' of opposition parties is about to collapse, and that his backers are quitting, this hasn't happened. Prabowo seems to be keeping any waverers in line with his never-say-die campaign.

At the moment he's the man still calling the shots. Hopefully not literally.