Indigenous university student success, 1980-2013

To recap:

• 1945-1955: Indigenous men sought more permanent work opportunities after the War, in country towns, and brought their families there as soon as they could, for the superior education opportunities for their kids;

• 1955-1965: young people and families moved to the cities for better opportunities for work and education;

• 1960-1980: young Indigenous people found labouring and semi-skilled work alongside other Australians;

• 1960-1985: young Indigenous people established families in the cities with strong experience of work and opportunity-seeking;

• 1999-2005: rapid increase in the number of Indigenous students completing secondary school to Year 12;

• 2006-present: record commencements etc. at university by Indigenous students;

• 2013: between thirty and thirty six thousand Indigenous graduates (however defined).

Projections and implications

Annual participation growth rates of eight and ten per cent would be difficult to sustain, as the birth-rate relatively levels out – at least for another decade or so. I'm always expecting annual increases to drop down towards 6 %, but they haven't done so yet. But using a conservative 6 % as a bench-mark increase rate, then annual commencements, enrolments and graduations can be expected to double in twelve years, by 2025. And again by 2037, 23 years away – but of course, we can easily remember 23 years ago, 1991. So, 2037 is not so far off.

By just 2025, total graduations will probably double, to around 65-70,000, in an Indigenous adult population (aged 20-49 years) of around 330,000 – in other words, a fifth of all younger Indigenous adults (perhaps one in every four living in cities, one in every two or three urban women).

With close to half of all young urban Indigenous women (or women of Indigenous descent) graduating and finding work as professionals across a vast range of careers, how will that impact on Indigenous society generally ? If not by 2025, then by 2030, 2035 ? As we know, if women are educated well, entire societies are bound to be transformed, as women make their way, and their own choices, in an open society.

And to what extent can the increased skill-level of Indigenous graduates contribute to Closing the Gap ? Universities tend to be in large towns and cities, and not only attract urban populations, but create and support professions which tend to be urban-based: the great majority of Indigenous students and graduates will be from urban backgrounds, and to urban positions they will most likely go. They don't owe remote 'communities anything, so the question becomes: if people in remote areas don't take their destinies in their own hands, if they keep thinking that whitefellas will do it all for them, and give them whatever they want (i.e. 'self-determination'), will the Gap get Wider ?

In other words, to what extent will the non-participation of welfare-oriented populations, and remote and rural populations - basically their alienation from the opportunities of mainstream society, in which those graduates will be embedded – lead to an even greater divide between the two Indigenous populations, one working and the other existing on lifelong welfare, by whatever name ? It is possible that university participation in rural and remote areas has actually declined 2000 and publicity efforts by stretched university student support staff seem to have withered somewhat. The Gap may not actually be Closing.

And the processes involved are not going to stop. By 2030-2034, Indigenous graduate numbers could grow to one hundred thousand, one graduate in every three city-based adults, versus barely one graduate in every twenty remote-based adults (and most of those originally from the cities, doing what they can to serve their people).

Clearly, universities' support services should now know where their publicity and recruitment work should be concentrated. Degree-level and post-graduate courses are clearly within their capabilities. Clearly, Indigenous students do best on-campus rather than off-campus, and in mainstream awards rather than segregated, Indigenous-focussed awards. Retention also tends to be higher, all things being equal, in higher-status courses, such as Medicine and Law, and lower in Indigenous-focussed courses. So there is not much value in trying to steer, or channel, Indigenous students into Indigenous Studies and related courses any more.

Another crucial task, one completely neglected, is how to massively increase the proportion of male students and graduates: but Indigenous male students tend not to have the high levels of maths and sciences that stereotypically-male courses require, and relatively few may want to study to be teachers or nurses. Obviously, this is a task primarily for the school system, in collaboration with effective tutorial schemes and with university outreach and preparation programs, if such exist.

And most importantly – the efforts of Indigenous recruitment, preparation and support programs must be focussed tirelessly on

• co-ordinating on-going publicity and recruitment programs with education staff in rural and especially remote communities;

• in recruiting male Indigenous students in far greater numbers and in designing attractive recruitment programs, as well as continuing to badger primary and secondary schools to be more vigilant about ensuring Indigenous students keep up with Maths and science;

• and re-developing rigorous and effective preparation courses for rural and remote, and especially male, prospective students, followed up by intensive and effective support right through to graduation, followed by employment placement mechanisms (which have been talked about for twenty five years now).

One thing is for certain: Indigenous futures are going to be far more diverse even than they are at present.