Opposition BJP favoured as India votes

The largest exercise in democracy on the planet is beginning this week  as India begins the more than month-long process of electing 543 members to its parliament, the Lok Sabha.

More than 814 million people will be eligible to cast their vote at almost a million polling stations. The sheer scale of the operation means that voting will take place on nine days in different parts of the country between April 7 and May 12 to allow sufficient resources to be deployed. Ballots will not be counted until May 16 with the result expected soon after.

The nearest analogy to the Indian vote is the United States primary system. Voting makes a modest start on Monday with just six constituencies contested, five in Assam and one in Tripura. The equivalent of 'Super Tuesday' (in reality consecutive Thursdays) occurs on the 17^th and 24^th when 121 and 117 constituencies are in play respectively.

While there is the usual clutter of minor and regional parties, the two giants are the ruling Indian National Congress Party, usually referred to as Congress which, with various supporting groups, has formed the Government for the past decade, and the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

After Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announced his retirement from politics at this election, Congress chose Rahul Gandhi, the scion of a family that has dominated the party – and Indian politics – since independence from the British in 1947. Gandhi is the great grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru, the nation's first Prime Minister, the grandson of Indira Gandhi and the son of Rajiv Gandhi who held power at various times in the 1960s, 70s and 80s.

Even during the Singh premiership it was widely recognised that Rahul's mother, Congress Party President Sonia, was the power behind the throne, so it was perhaps not surprising that Congress turned once again to a winning formula and chose the latest Gandhi to lead it.

There are signs, however, that the Gandhi magic is fading. For a start Rahul does not have the love of the political rough and tumble that characterised his ancestors. A back-bench MP, he has never held Ministerial office, and refused one under Singh. He is on record as saying he would rather work behind the scenes and reform the Congress Party's structure than lead from the front.

When he eventually agreed to be the Prime Ministerial candidate, his acceptance speech was less than enthusiastic, saying that as a "soldier of Congress" he was bound to accept what it wanted. Since then he has been a lacklustre and unenthusiastic performer on the campaign trail. In recent State elections his presence did nothing to stop a rout by the BJP.

His task is made all the more difficult by his opponent from the BJP, the charismatic four-term Chief Minister of Gujarat State, Narendra Modi. Over the past decade in a series of sometimes controversial pro-business initiatives Modi has transformed Gujarat into the economic powerhouse of India.

A recent Economic Freedom of the States of Indiareport placed Gujarat solidly at the head of its index as the best place in India in which to do business with an average annual growth rate of 12 per cent between 2005 and 2011.

Modi's claim that he can do for India what he has achieved in Gujarat has struck a chord with the electorate. A Nielson poll predicts the BJP and its supporters are heading back to power with a likely total of 236 seats against the Congress Party and supporters' 92. The result would mean the BJP would have to negotiate with some of the numerous minor parties to secure an overall majority, but that is normal given the fragmented state of Indian politics.

Modi's record in Gujarat has come under attack from Arvind Kejirwal, the leader of the third force in Indian politics, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Kejirwal, who will stand against Modi in the Uttar Pradesh seat of Varanasi, claimed the Gujarat economic boom has been achieved only at the expense of poor farmers who had their land possessed for industry. As a result, Kejirwal said, many farmers had been forced into poverty and even suicide.

The BJP leader quickly shot back, saying that annual farm sector growth in the state was 11 per cent, compared to three per cent in the country as a whole.

If Modi has a weakness that can be exploited it is his role 12 years ago in the infamous Hindu-Muslim riots in Gujarat in which more than 1000 people died. His detractors claimed the then first-term Chief Minister did nothing to stop the deadly clashes and even colluded in them. While subsequent investigations cleared Modi of the latter charge, the mud has stuck and he remains subject to a ban on entering the United States – a sanction that will have to be lifted should he become Prime Minister.

On the other hand Gandhi carries with him the burden of incumbency, and while Singh's administration received good marks for its economic management in its early years, it has more recently become marred in a series of scandals and allegations of mismanagement.

Chief among these are charges of bribery involving several senior Government officials and the British-Italian helicopter manufacturer AgustaWestland over the purchase of a fleet of VIP helicopters. Often referred to as Choppergate, the scandal has sucked in some of the leading names in the Congress Party and resulted in the cancellation of the contract in January.

The opposition has also targeted the Government's handling of a 2012 incident in which two marines on board an Italian oil tanker off the coast of Kerala shot and killed two fishermen in a nearby trawler believing them to be pirates.

The incident sparked a diplomatic row between the two countries with the Italian Government complaining about lengthy delays in settling the matter while keeping the marines in detention. More than two years after the incident it remains unresolved.

Cynics argue that this is nothing new in Indian politics, pointing to a think tank survey which claims that 18 per cent of declared candidates face criminal charges including rape, murder and extortion. While some of the allegations may be the result of smear campaigns by political opponents and corrupt police, the findings are still disturbing.

All three major political parties have declared they want to see an end to India's endemic corruption – the AAP has made it the central point of its platform – but of all the many promises made during the campaign, this may prove the hardest to keep.