Poland flexes its EU muscles

Nowhere are events in Ukraine watched more intensely and with greater concern than in Poland. In the fashionable Warsaw cafes and restaurants, and among strollers along the banks of the great Vistula River which runs through the heart of the capital, the talk inevitably turns to what happens next over the eastern border.

Last week Prime Minister Donald Tusk took his concerns directly to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, urging a tougher stand against events that could see the Ukrainian province of Crimea annexed to Russia.

"Ukrainians have to find out today that they have real friends. Europe must send a clear signal that it will not tolerate any acts of aggression or intervention," Tusk said.

To the north Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite described Russian moves as "open and brutal aggression" which could bring on a domino effect in the region.

The great fear among Poles is that losing Crimea without a strong response from the West will so demoralise the Government in Kiev that it would collapse and the country fall prey to a complete takeover by Moscow.

An expert in international political studies, Piotr Zapalowicz was reported as saying that a victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine might encourage him to use force in other areas where the old Soviet Union reigned – such as the Baltic States and Poland - if there was not a firm response from the European Union.

That, in the view of some older Poles grouped around a television set in a Warsaw bar, would be the country's worst nightmare. "My grandfather died defending Poland in 1939 and my father died under the communist regime," one said.

"I have no wish to see Russia camped on our borders again. If nothing else it will mean tens of thousands of refugees flooding into Poland. We will be overwhelmed."

Talk ranged from military intervention to support Ukraine – "let's send our tanks east before Russia's come west" - to an all-out blockade, even at the cost of damaging Europe's own economies.

Not surprisingly, talk in European diplomatic circles is less bellicose. United Kingdom Prime Minister David Cameron, no doubt conscious of the vast amount of Russian money invested in his country, does not want any sanctions that might damage London's role as a major international financial centre, while Putin's veiled threats to cut off Europe's oil and gas supplies have sent shudders through the countries that have come to rely on these resources over the past two decades.

Merkel herself is reportedly under pressure from German business interests who fear counter sanctions would seriously damage the country's role as Russia's leading trade partner in Europe and its third largest worldwide.

However, many other commentators are saying that some short-term pain would be worthwhile if it could convince Putin that Europe will not be pushed around and that the Russian economy, not nearly as strong as some Russians would have Europeans believe, would be the first to buckle.

One intriguing development in the crisis is the underlining of Poland's growing importance inside the EU. Initially dismissed as just one of the poor relations from the former Eastern Bloc joining up after the fall of the Soviet Union, the country is fast being seen as on a par with EU giants Germany, France and the United Kingdom, especially as France is considered to be on the decline and the UK is ambivalent about belonging at all.

Poland has a lot in common with Ukraine. Their languages are similar and parts of western Ukraine were actually Polish territory before World War II – the events of that conflict making Warsaw doubly suspicious of Russia's intentions.

As a result it has taken the lead in promoting western democratic values in the States that belonged to the old Soviet Union – Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia and Moldova – including the funding of a television station run by Belarusian exiles, something which has infuriated the autocratic and Moscow-leaning government of Alexander Lukashenko.

There are signs that Poland's example is putting some backbone into its European colleagues. Agence France Press reported energy experts as saying that Germany's dependence on Russia's natural resources was not nearly as great as some were making out.

A Warsaw-based analyst who specialises in Polish-Russian ties, Slawomir Debski, said Germany was less dependent on its imports of Russian gas than Russia was on exporting it.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, visiting the Estonian capital of Tallinn, assured the people of the Baltic States that their membership of the EU and NATO guaranteed security from Russian aggression.

"I am here to say that the Baltic States will not be left alone. This is a joint problem for NATO and the EU," Steinmeier said.

Writing in Forbes Magazine, commentator Alejandro Chafuen said Poland was preparing itself to be again at the forefront of Western civilisation.

"In his book The Next 100 Years, strategist George Friedman predicted that in this decade Russia was going to expand to the West and that this would trigger a new Cold War with the United States. What we see happening in Ukraine fits with his thesis," Chafuen wrote.

"Friedman also predicted that during this century Poland would become the major ally of the United States and would be too costly for Russia to invade."

But perhaps the most telling example of the shifting power base within Europe comes in the comments made by Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski in a speech two years ago.

Speaking then about the need for Germany to show more leadership in extracting the EU from the aftermath of the global financial crisis, Sikorski said he would probably the first Polish Foreign Minister in history to fear German power less than German inactivity.