Afghanistan's next presidential election

Amid preparations for the upcoming presidential elections in April, Afghanistan is being forced into a treacherous game of political roulette between the United States and Hamid Karzai.

The game is centered on the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between Afghanistan and the United States of America, which allows the US to maintain its military presence in Afghanistan and prevent the return of Taliban and affiliated terrorist groups to power in the country.

Except for Karzai, other key stakeholders including the US, participants of the Consultative Grand Assembly and the absolute majority of key civil society groups in Afghanistan back signing of the BSA.

Karzai's stance perplexed many as the Taliban has been the only beneficiary so far. Where the chips may fall at this stage is anyone's guess.

Preparation for the election is quickly descending into chaos and leaves little room for a fair and democratic process.

The election campaigns are encouraging rifts along ethnic and linguistic lines.

The recent tribal gathering in the presidential palace in Kabul to select a candidate under Karzai's patronage only further pushes Afghanistan's nascent democracy off track.

The pre- election chaos is due in part to failure to nurture a positive political discourse that could have led to the emergence of issue-based political trends.

Consequently, the present candidates lack a clear manifesto and practical solutions for stabilizing Afghanistan and promoting democracy and human rights.

Nearly a dozen ethnically structured teams of three will run for "power" on April 5, 2014. However, in general all candidates belong to one of two major camps: "ethnocentric non-Jihadis" and "Jihad-centered nationalists."

Dr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai is the leading candidate in the former camp whose victory will lead to a continuation of the status quo and further deterioration of the security situation.

In light of tense inter-tribal competition in the south and east, the ethno-centrist technocrats such as Ahmadzai might inevitably seek to make deals with Taliban insurgents to avoid a total collapse of the state.

This is underlined by the recent visit of Ashraf Ghani to Saudi Arabia, the religiously incorrect photos of which were widely shared on social media. In Saudi Arabia he has likely met with key Taliban supporters.

Election of a candidate from the second camp, led by former Foreign Minister Dr. Abdullah Abdullah leads to a different scenario.

First, there is deep-seated mistrust between this camp and the US, going back to the cold war when the Pakistani lobby in the US portrayed the North-based Jihadi factions as untrustworthy and encouraged the West and Arabs to back on the south-based groups.

As detailed by former US secretary of defense, Robert Gates, in his book titled Duty, this mistrust was further underpinned by secret advice of some of the top leaders of the current ruling team of Afghanistan to US officials.

Second, the Taliban and their regional supporters do not trust the Jihad-centered camp because most of their leading figures resisted the Taliban in the late 1990s and later in 2001 helped the US to topple the Taliban regime.

This renders it more difficult to encourage the Taliban to enter a peace negotiation with their former enemies.

The Jihad-centered groups also hold many grudges against the Taliban, holding them accountable for the assassination of several of their top leaders during the past decade.

In addition, the jihad-centered political forces also have a tendency for decentralization of power, which is wrongly perceived as a ploy to partition Afghanistan.

Lastly, assuming that a jihadi-centered candidate wins the elections it is unlikely that the ethnocentrists would cooperate with it, rather backing the Taliban, much as in the 1990s when they helped the Taliban as writers, analysts and strategists.

A quick and careful policy shift along with responsible and timely action is needed to control the situation and compel President Karzai to sign the BSA.

Only a comprehensive commitment to such a policy revision and ensuring free and fair elections under the watchful eye of the international community can prevent further deterioration of the situation in Afghanistan.

Failure to defeat the Taliban and other terrorists in Afghanistan would embolden terrorist networks around the world, thus jeopardizing the democratization of Afghanistan and posing critical security threats to the country, the region and beyond.