Redcliffe byelection loss an opportunity for Newman

So the first opportunity Newman has is to fix up his campaign team. Whoever designed this campaign is not up to the job at the moment. They need to shape up, or ship out.

His second opportunity is to refashion his message.

Inasmuch as voters are sending him a message it is about perceptions. People do not like Newman, and that is why his picture wasn't on the how-to-vote cards. Inexplicably (another question of campaigning) he was dominant in the physical campaign during the last weeks.

Newman and his handlers have to accept this as a given. What they need to understand is that "like" isn't what it is about. Voters never liked John Howard, the odd mobbing aside, but they tolerated him over more popular opponents because he delivered.

The "Cando" man has to rediscover "doing" and forget about trying to be likeable, and he has to focus on what he is achieving whilst comparing and contrasting with Labor's inept performance in government. He's tough, and that's why he will deliver, and a tough politician would never try to buy his way to success in a byelection.

His third opportunity is to look for structural change in how his parliamentary party operates.

One thing I find strange is that there is no ginger group within the parliamentary LNP. Some members have jumped ship and joined Palmer United, but that has been flaky behaviour.

In the past there have always been ambitious and/or principled members who have acted as an internal check on party decisions.

Some of the members of those ginger groups have been promoted into cabinet, despite, or perhaps because of, their devil's advocacy.

Where the Newman government has made policy mistakes it has often been questions of fine-tuning. When convicted paedophile Robert John Fardon was likely to be released on parole they tried to stop him being released by giving the executive power to extend his sentence.

This offended notions of the separation of powers, as well as the idea of habeas corpus, and was over-turned by the courts. A different process, such as reversing the onus of proof in applications for parole in particular cases, could have returned the desired result without offending the notions of justice

But the consultation process was truncated, or non-existent. An active ginger group, encouraged by the leadership, could have saved the government this embarrassment. So could a proper committe system.

They might have also adjusted the bikie legislation, where the biggest problem appears to be the length of sentence for what appear to be minor infractions like three people having a beer together, so that sentences are more moderate, decreasing the leverage available to bikie publicists, and increasing the chances of judges and juries convicting.

The next election is due in around 12 months.

Now is the time to make the changes that have to happen, and the Redcliffe byelection result provides a narrative to make that change acceptable to supporters, and swinging voters, alike.