Following the harsh confrontation, a phase of reconciliation needs to follow. The Russian-Orthodox cultural identity of parts of the population needs to be protected and this is only aligned with the allegations of the Council of Europe and the UN Charter, as well as the experiences of Germany with its former archenemies of France and Poland. Ukraine should be a stable and open bridge between Russia and Western Europe.
The EU and the IMF need to present a detailed catalogue for reforms and also to secure funding for the upcoming five to ten years. So far, a lot has seemed too vague. The EU cannot advance an association while leaving open the funding of its implementation. This was the main mistake of the approach up till now, because Ukraine is effectively bankrupt. There are at least 15 billion dollars missing for the upcoming 12 months alone. That is why Yanukovych grabbed the thick financial lifebelt from Moscow: Putin's commitment of 12 billion dollars, of which eight billion have already been paid.
Without the insertion of money, the EU will not be able to enact effective policies towards Ukraine and its approach will seem neither viable nor convincing. That is why the financial requirements for the next ten years and the running costs need to be disclosed. One third of this support could be covered by the US and two thirds could be taken over by the EU. Will this be 30 or even 50 billion dollars? In any case it will be very expensive, ultimately also for Russia.
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Nevertheless, this gigantic sum will flow into the Black Sea without a solid foundation of radical reforms. Central to this is the strengthening of the Parliament towards the executive power of the President through a constitutional revision. The countering of corruption could be enhanced by drawing on examples from all over the world. The administration should orient itself on the EU's model student of Estonia and its effective and budget-friendly e-government. We need a specific catalogue of reforms of a lot of measures with price tags and timelines. The funding of projects needs to be ensured through the EU and the US, so that money cannot seep away again into a cesspool.
Quick re-elections seem to be unavoidable. But even these require the basis of new reform politics, as a mere change at the top is not sufficient.
A Ukraine 3.0 with good relations with East and West and a stable and healthy foundation is feasible. Let us now, in concrete terms, take the necessary steps and stop merely talking. Let us be optimistic. Let us refrain from insults and get to work. Let us get Russia on board, along with the culturally-rooted Ukrainians in the east of the country. Let us begin a policy of reconciliation, like that pursued by Konrad Adenauer and Helmut Kohl. All of this belongs together in order for us to create stability for the Ukrainians, Russians and us EU-Europeans.
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