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No Indo-Pak nuclear war after all!

By George Thomas - posted Saturday, 15 June 2002


Third, the relationship between Indians and Pakistanis are not the same as Israelis and Arabs who come from different ethnic and cultural backgrounds and do not share a common centuries-old historical experience. There is still an overarching "curry-salwarkamiz-cricket" unity to the subcontinent based on common history, language, cuisine, music and culture. The parallel may be found in the relationship between the Catholic Irish and the Protestant English where language, culture and historical experience are basically the same.

A more convincing Western scenario of a prospective nuclear war on the subcontinent revolves around the speculation of "loose nukes" in Pakistan with radical Islamicists gaining control of them. A coup against the Pakistani military dictator, General Pervez Musharraf, may result in such a situation. Under these conditions, Pakistani threats to use nuclear weapons against India would be no bluff if India fails to comply with Islamabad’s demands on Kashmir. In turn, India would feel compelled to pre-empt a Pakistani nuclear attack, or retaliate after the attack has taken place.

However, it is not coincidental that South Asia appears to be "the most dangerous place on earth" only when the United States and its media pay attention to the region and say it is so. The more extreme groups among the Islamic militants then become encouraged to escalate the war of insurgency and terrorism in Indian Kashmir in order to invite U.S. intervention.

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On the other hand, nuclear tensions may ease if South Asia were to be declared (say) "the most boring place on earth" and subjected to a policy of benign neglect by the United States and especially its media. Without Western attention and the prospect of military or diplomatic intervention the continuation of the insurgency and terrorism in Kashmir by Islamic militants may appear futile against the sustained and prolonged resolve of Indian forces to thwart Pakistan’s war by proxy against India.

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About the Author

Raju G C Thomas is the Allis Chalmers distinguished professor of International Affairs at Marquette University, Milwaukee, Wisconsin. His most recent book is as contributing editor of Yugoslavia Unraveled : Sovereignty, Self-Determination, Intervention, Lexington Books, 2004

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