Pivot to Asia has not fallen off its axis

It will force some overdue belt tightening at the Pentagon, shift government spending into more productive areas of the economy and encourage a much needed debate in the US about future defence priorities.

Contrary to recent commentary, the US will stay the course on Obama's pivot to Asia for the simple reason that Asia engages US vital interests more than any other region, including the Middle East.

By 2050, 40 million Americans are likely to regard themselves as Asian and they are growing faster than any other ethnic group, including Hispanics.

Over time, this demographic dynamic will drive a new era of closer, more intense people-to-people ties with Asia, stimulating trade and investment.

As economic and financial power continues its inexorable shift from the Atlantic to the Pacific, US strategic interests will be increasingly engaged.

Despite the unseemly bickering in Washington that prevented Obama from attending APEC and the East Asia Summit, the US has hardly neglected Asia over the past decade, economically or militarily. The much maligned Trans-Pacific Partnership is a major trade initiative that may yet achieve Obama's vision of a US-led, liberal trade arrangement, and the US still maintains 100,000 troops and enormous firepower in the region.

This month, US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel announced a significant agreement with his Japanese counterpart to base in Japan, for the first time, sophisticated Global Hawk drones, radar and aircraft, including the first deployment outside the US of the Joint Strike Fighter, destined to become the core of Australia's own air force in a few years.

This is a significant and under-recognised down payment on the pivot which President Obama has promised to quarantine from future budget cuts.

The take away for Australia is that the US is far from a busted flush in Asia, and a renaissance may be closer than pessimists think.