For whom the bell tolls

Bob Katter and Clive Palmer

KATTER is one of the legendary figures of Australian politics, but made a mistake when he formed a political party. This gave him an image of being another Party hack, instead of presenting himself as the authentic leader of Australia's many independent voters. He also made a mistake in not giving up his electorate of Kennedy to run for the Senate himself, as he could have gained a personal balance of power situation there - whereas I don't think his other Senate candidates can make it. But, he will hold his seat of Kennedy and vote with Rudd if the Parliament is deadlocked.

PALMER is one of the world's greatest egotists, but he correctly identified an opportunity to form a new conservative party based on gaining the anti-Abbott vote. However, Rudd's return foiled that by polarising the electorate. Palmer's campaign will fail spectacularly, but he will gain some votes, in which case his preferences could be vital. Most will flow to Katter and vice versa. Then, they could go anywhere.

Independents

ANDREW WILKIE has a solid chance of holding his seat in Tasmania, as he was a responsible Independent in the last Parliament and has been a dedicated local member.

CATHY McGOWAN is a genuine possibility to unseat Liberal MP, Sophie Mirabella, in the rural seat of Indi in northern Victoria. She has impeccable rural connections and is receiving ALP preferences. There are no other independents with realistic chances in the House of Representatives, but it will be interesting to watch where Tony Windsor's supporters place their votes in New England. Many are strongly anti-National Party and regard Barnaby Joyce as a foreigner from Queensland. The new Independent, ROB TABER, will do a lot better than expected as he has Windsor's support and ALP preferences.

However, in the Senate, the Prime Minister's brother, GREG RUDD, could sneak home in Queensland on the preferences of everyone else. PAULINE HANSON may do the same in NSW, as the racist vote in Australia is, lamentably, growing. NICK XENOPHON is a very good bet to retain his seat in South Australia and could get his Number Two up also.

Wikileaks may get an irrelevant sympathy vote. If some of these victories occur, it will spell the end of Tony Abbott's hope of controlling the Senate and removing the carbon tax. This is a possibility as many who distrust Abbott, but vote for him in the Reps, will decide to curb his power by deadlocking the Senate.

Former Prime Ministers

JULIA GILLARD has faithfully honoured her commitment to depart the political scene, something that Rudd should have done three years ago. Her stature as a former Prime Minister grows by the day, and history will treat her more kindly than either Rudd or Abbott. Nevertheless, she is still having a current impact on voters.

In Adelaide, where she spent her childhood and now lives, there is a sizeable number of voters who are anti-Rudd because 'he knifed our Julia'. John Howard is doing a good job bringing some of the anti-Abbott votes back into the conservative fold by attending functions with the Party faithful around the nation. Because we are friends of 35 years standing, I attended a function that he addressed in Brisbane just to say hello and arrange to have a coffee with him in Sydney after the election. He gave the crowd a splendid speech on the state of the economy without attacking Rudd, Swan or Gillard. It was refreshing to hear an informed opinion given without spin.

Significant Others

MAL BROUGH will return to Parliament where his talent is needed. One day, the full facts of Ashbygate will be revealed, and will prove that Brough took the rap to protect others. For the moment, the fact is that the colourful political career of Peter Slipper will end.

WAYNE SWAN will hold his seat of Lilley, and one day people will give him credit for saving Australia from recession in 2008.

The Parliament's youngest member, WYATT ROY, will deservedly hold his seat of Longman, and PHILLIP RUDDOCK will become Speaker of the House of Representatives.

CRAIG THOMSON will have plenty of time to spend his days with his credit card. It is probably a reasonable bet to say that PETER BEATTIE will regret the rush of blood that caused him to attempt a political comeback.