Couped up: Sharif confronts assertive military

If this is the case the Pakistani military which, regardless of any statements put out by Islamabad about sovereignty violations, had been cooperating with US intelligence in the drone wars, now needs another source of tension to maintain its prestige and funding. Jammu and Kashmir, claimed by both countries in an unresolved dispute which has bubbled along since independence from the British in 1947, is the obvious choice.

The sad fact is that the least two things Pakistan needs at this time is further heavy expenditure on its armed forces draining its already depleted national budget and continuing strife with its big neighbour, which would extinguish any hopes of improved trade and investment between the two countries.

Pakistan's Ministry of Finance recently released figures suggesting the economy had suffered direct and indirect losses of more than $67 billion because of its role in the war on terror – and this is before past sums are added in from the three wars it has fought with India and the expenditure on its nuclear weapons program.

It is often said that Pakistan is close to being a failed State. That has always been an exaggeration, but constant internal turmoil is sapping its resources and energies to dangerous levels. Only last week security forces seized a 100 tons of the bomb-making material potassium chlorate in a warehouse raid in Quetta, the capital Baluchistan while in Karachi the minority Muttahida Qaumi Movement has called for the military to take over and restore order in a city where gang warfare, bank heists, extortion rackets and kidnappings for ransom are everyday occurrences.

Sharif now has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to begin to set matters to rights by at least beginning a dialogue with the Taliban, unpleasant as this may seem to Western sensibilities. He must also persuade the generals that a constant state of conflict with India is destructive of the nation and ultimately of the military itself.

On whether he can rise to these challenges will rest the prospects for a better future for the Pakistani people.