What would a Katter/Rudd preference deal mean for Australia?

The fact is that Katter took votes from both sides of politics. But because it was not a 'normal' election and there was such a massive swing against Labor, Katter's ability to play 'Kingmaker' has not been recognised.

It did not help him either that Queensland has optional preferential voting because it reduced his influence to decide the outcome.

Come September 7, these two factors will be gone. The swing against Labor will not be as strong and Katter's preferences won't exhaust – they will decide outcomes in key seats.

A lot of key seats.

In fact, if Katter preferences Rudd over Abbott, many safe LNP seats will come into play. That's because the LNP's primary vote actually went backwards in one in five seats at the Queensland Election. All of them were in regional areas, where traditional LNP voters turned to Katter and his big hat.

For instance, Herbert is a safe LNP seat centred over Townsville – Katter country.

At the Queensland Election, Katter received 27 per cent at the booths in this electorate. Many of those voters were previously LNP supporters but under a deal with Rudd, Katter would direct them to preference Labor.

It's enough to change the outcome.

The same goes for Leichhardt, the electorate covering Far North Queensland. Katter picked up just over 19 per cent there. If his vote holds up and his how-to-vote cards put Labor above the LNP, Leichardt could fall too.

It's the same story in other seats. In Dawson, Katter scored 22 per cent. It could also be an unexpected gain for Rudd.

And it would provide a huge boost to Labor's chances in seats it needs to hold. Katter picked up 16 per cent in Blair and 17 per cent in Capricornia. Under a deal, these seats would stay in Labor hands.

Even in the seats closer to the capital, Katter would still have a say. In Forde, where Peter Beattie is now running, Katter picked up 10 per cent. If this goes to Labor, it is a sure gain for the Rudd campaign.