Prime Minister Abbott - can he really step up?

Can Tony Abbott take the step up to be a successful Prime Minister?

It says something that those words alone have been enough for Labor to resurrect Kevin Rudd at the cost of half the Cabinet in a last gasp attempt to avoid having to 'bear the unbearable.'

Predicting leadership success is a fraught science, however more leaders are undone by over-reaching on their strengths than by their weaknesses, so let's look at three of Abbott's strengths and then reflect on what they might mean for an Abbott-prime ministership.

The first strength is the unrelenting confidence in himself and his beliefs. Four years of Labor taunts are returned with even greater force but never detail. Abbott's confidence means he hasn't blinked and done a 'Hewson' by releasing detailed policies, or waivered even once from simple slogans that so irritate opponents. He will hold his nerve to the last.

Second is his Determined focus on what he believes is right and on what he wants to achieve. This is Abbott head down ploughing his bike into a southerly gale, or in Parliament relentlessly stopping anything and everything from boats to taxes. He refuses to celebrate success until the race is run; and through media coaching has shrunk as a target by getting better at limiting his message.

Third is the BOLDNESS to take anyone and anything head on. Abbott naturally moves towards a challenge be it physical or intellectual. It's hard to imagine any other Liberal going as hard on Rudd and Gillard as Abbott has done for what has effectively been a four year campaign.

For these reasons many pundits still expect Abbott to campaign relentlessly on the Government's failings and then settle into the Prime Ministership while Rudd or Shorten rebuild. But are they missing something?

Fundamentally, Tony Abbott scares a lot of people for three reasons firmly rooted in his strengths.

1. Arrogance

Instead of confidence they see arrogance and worry that it comes from a hidden belief system which weaves rigid religious beliefs with Howard's paternalistic 1950's community view (remember 'a bad boss is a little bit like a bad father or a bad husband ….. at least he's employing someone while he is in fact a boss.')

Most political leaders claim strong religious beliefs and mentors from past eras but they balance this with a vision of a better future. Does Tony Abbott have a vision? He would no doubt say 'yes' but that's confidence in a belief system unexplained. When political leaders get accused of arrogance by middle Australia they don't last long no matter what their record or potential. Just ask Keating or Kennett.

2. Inability to connect:

No doubt that Tony Abbott's determined focus gets him down the highway on a bike, or holding his message to small simplistic chants like 'Stop the Boats' or 'Cash splash', but as a leader he lacks warmth and the ability to engage across boundaries. This inability to connect with people is arguably his greatest achilles heel, particularly now that he is matched to a Prime Minister who does this better than anything else.

Contrast Abbott to Hawke the 'great connector'. Where is the relationship with the Australian people? Howard had it too, albeit with a sense of comfort rather than excitement. Abbott neither comforts people, nor excites them. If he was good at this he would have convinced the Independents to support him in 2010 instead of enraging them to the point where three years of minority government became almost inevitable.

It's a paradox that Tony Abbott has spent more personal time and care understanding the plight of Indigenous Australians than most politicians but it was Rudd who offered the apology. Abbott the confident, determined leader doesn't see symbolism, he misses the subtlety of gender difference ('women of calibre'), and then over-reaches on parental leave making people wonder, 'What the…?'

3. Aggression

No one doubts Abbott's boldness but what a derailer this could become.

Australians increasingly expect civility and empathy not aggression from political leaders (remember 'shit happens' or 'died of shame'). His minders have no doubt worked long and hard but defaults under pressure are hard to contain and Abbott's body language betrays him time and again.

Imagine Prime Minister Abbott circa 2014 playing to his strengths along current lines. Apart from a vengeful Labor Party blocking his every move, he will almost certainly drive an angry Senate further away, limiting the ability to govern even to the extent of removing current legislation, let alone implementing a vision or detailed agenda. Under such circumstances it's easy and even compelling to envisage the attraction of Hockey or Turnbull, with a strengthening Labor emerging.

Could Abbott do a 'Rudd' and be removed by his own Party before completing his first term?

There has to be a strong chance but what we know for sure is that Abbott the Opposition Leader has contained and directed his strengths, and it is Labor that can take much of the credit for that because disunity and poor execution has given him the ammunition to fire, and the cover to conceal what his advisors must know to be a liability.

If Abbott the unlikely success as Opposition Leader manages to get past Rudd, could he surprise us again and become a visionary, engaging and effective Prime Minister? If he were a corporate leader, then his Board would mandate strong coaching in emotional intelligence and building a team that moderates (not reinforces) his strengths. But this is politics and maybe that's too sophisticated to consider.

Which means that we revert to the final rule of performance psychology; the best predictor of future performance is past performance. Perhaps that's why so many people are scared of Tony Abbott…..and Kevin Rudd.