Iran’s Islamic democracy alive and well

There will be less of Ahmadinejad’s bombast. No more calls to drive Israel into the sea, but still portraying Israel as the country’s principal enemy, obsessed with preventing Iran from taking its rightful place as a major regional power and looking for the slightest excuse to unleash its air force on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

And there will be little or no change in Iran’s nuclear posture. The very fact this has become such a fundamental issue means that it would be impossible for any Government in Tehran to back down without being seen as kow-towing to the West. This is something that the United States and Israel are going to have to live with and manage.

One aspect of the new regime to watch is its attitude to Syria. Almost as soon as the votes were counted, Syria’s Opposition leaders called for Rouhani to renounce his country’s support for the Assad regime. That will not happen, but the decision of Ahmadinejad to send 4000 troops to fight on the side of President Bashar al-Assad and especially the Iranian president’s stated desire to open a “Syrian front” against Israel on the Golan Heights, could well be up for review.

However, the ancient sectarian split will inevitably see Shiite Iran continue to be aligned with the Shiite-dominated Government in Damascus against the mainly Sunni insurgency.

How a Rouhani Government balances all its international problems while maintaining a line between God and Mammon at home, will be fascinating to observe over the weeks and months ahead.