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A ‘Miss World’ approach to our security?

By Graham Cooke - posted Wednesday, 15 May 2013


Another Defence White Paper – the second from the current Labor Government and almost a sideshow in the lead-up to the Federal Election and the Budget.  Unlike past papers, this one drew headlines for a day then faded into obscurity, to be left for analysis by academics and retired senior military figures in front of equally specialised audiences. The general public moved on.

What do we really know about the paper? During its single day of fame the media honed in on a softer approach to China which, given the current administration in Canberra, was inevitable after the harder line taken by former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd in the 2009 White Paper.

The possibility of our relationship with Beijing going pear-shaped at some future date was strong enough for Rudd, who knew China well, to put emphasis on the acquisition of military hardware. While hardly countering China’s fast-increasing military might it at least put Beijing on notice that Australia was in the game.

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That was then. Now Rudd’s successor, Prime Minister Julia Gillard, gushes over China, her Pollyanna approach refusing to look beyond the smiling faces, diplomatic handshakes and banquets in the Great Hall of the People.

For her the Asian Century (which is really the Chinese Century if it is anything at all) is the one and only way of maintaining Australia’s prosperity and must be conjured up, even if in reality it isn’t here yet. The Beijing sun must shine whatever the clouds that might be gathering on the horizon.

Of course, the momentum established by Rudd can hardly be countered by a stroke of the pen, or even the publication of a White Paper. Contracts entered into and the delivery of weapons systems is a matter of years, even decades. However, Australia’s withdrawal from Iran and Afghanistan leaves Defence as a tempting target for current and future Treasurers desperate to return the country to the Holy Grail of Budget surplus.

The argument against a peace divided has been put by Peter Dean of the Australian National University’s Strategic and Defence Centre. He argues that despite current constraints on Government spending, the Australian Defence Force must have a stronger presence in the north and north-west of Australia and into South East Asia and the South Pacific.

“The necessity for an increased presence in these areas can be achieved by staging the ADF in robust, updated, forward bases to provide increased capacity for training, exercises and deployments in this region,” Dean says.

His words are echoed by a colleague at the Strategic and Defence Centre, John Blaxland, who says that with the Afghanistan commitment winding down, the ADF should be refocusing on bolstering security and stability in Australia’s “inner arc”.

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Blaxland emphasises the role the ADF can play in disaster relief and other humanitarian activities, and certainly what is becoming known as “military diplomacy” has a role. However, it is important to remember that the inner arc he speaks of has in the past been an arc of instability (think Timor-Leste, Vanuatu, Bougainville) and might easily become so again.

Fiji remains a dangerous wild card, with its military dictator dragging his feet on a return to democracy as the taste for power becomes addictive and the relationship with China, which will certainly not be advising him to liberalise his regime, grows in strength.

So what does the White Paper say about our relationship with our neighbours and the role we should play there?

“Our next most important strategic interest [after the defence of our own shores] is the security, stability and cohesion of our immediate neighbourhood, which we share with Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste and South Pacific states. Australia seeks to ensure that our neighbourhood does not become a source of threat to Australia and that no major power with hostile intentions establishes bases in our immediate neighbourhood from which it could project force against us.”

A further paragraph deals with assisting Timor-Leste and the South Pacific states in their governance and security - while assuming that New Zealand will also weigh in with help - before going on to talk about Indonesia and the rest of South East Asia.

In other words, the usual motherhood remarks that have appeared in previous White Papers. This is a statement of principles with no more than hints and fudges on concrete action to back them. Something that Professor of Strategic Studies at ANU Hugh White has called “the audacity of hope”.

White decries the White Paper’s lack of robust analysis of our regional engagements. “It assumes things will always work as they used to,” he says.

“It assumes that all we have to do is to be friendly – the Miss World approach to strategic policy.

“There is something inspiring about hope, but it is not a defence policy.”

Indeed there are clear signs that all is not sunshine and light. The bullying approach by China over its claims to the Spratly and Paracel islands in the South China Sea; a similar dispute with Japan in the East China Sea and the recent stand-off with India over the contested border area of Ladakh in the Himalayas have all the hallmarks of an expansionist power testing the resolve of its neighbours to resist it.

It is interesting to note that the initial fury emanating from the Chinese leadership over Rudd’s 2009 White Paper, including initial demands that it be changed, quickly subsided. Beijing respects strength and understands resolve. The 2010 sentencing of Australian Rio Tinto executive Stern Hu and his three Chinese colleagues on bribery charges, often cited as payback for the White Paper, were more to do with the intricacies of iron ore pricing. The business dealings between the two countries have continued as before.

Now, of course, Beijing has another White Paper, with an altogether more conciliatory tone to consider. Whether Chinese analysts will regard this as a gesture of friendship to be reciprocated, or a sign of weakness to be exploited, is a question for the future.     

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About the Author

Graham Cooke has been a journalist for more than four decades, having lived in England, Northern Ireland, New Zealand and Australia, for a lengthy period covering the diplomatic round for The Canberra Times.


He has travelled to and reported on events in more than 20 countries, including an extended stay in the Middle East. Based in Canberra, where he obtains casual employment as a speech writer in the Australian Public Service, he continues to find occasional assignments overseas, supporting the coverage of international news organisations.

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