Time for Australia to manage peace, not war

Yes, there is a need for Australia to spend more than its paltry 1.5 per cent of GDP on defence, but only when an improving economy allows and not as much as the four per cent that some analysts suggest

The traditional Asian flashpoint, an invasion by China of Taiwan to reclaim its 'renegade province', was gradually fading with the growing economic interdependence of the island and the mainland. A crisis provoked by a belligerent North Korea was of more concern, but it was certainly in China's interest to do everything it could to curb its turbulent ally.

"Beijing's aggressive actions over claims on islands in the South China Sea and the East China Sea have alienated it from many Asian nations, but if an incident did escalate you would expect it could be contained," he said.

Professor Dibb said that while China's economy was currently growing at a fast rate, it would be ultimately restrained by an ageing workforce and a lack of innovation resulting from its "restrictive" education system.

"The One Child Policy means it is heading for workforce shortages and there is nothing it can do about that," he said.

"With 400 million people over the age of 60 by 2040 and no social security system, China is going to have to spend a great deal in this area to prevent social disruption and that will affect the defence budget."

In addition, China had no experience of modern warfare. The human waves of troops used in the Korean War would be of no value against modern weapons while the 1979 'Teach Vietnam a Lesson' invasion, ultimately claimed as a victory, was in reality a tactical disaster.

It was buying noisy submarines from Russia which would be easily detected by American and Japanese technology and its military research and development was not at all comparable to that of the US.

Turning to the US, Professor Dibb agreed its economy was in trouble. "However, I have great confidence in the dynamic inventiveness of the American people. Everything from the iPhone to Facebook and Twitter were invented there and it is constantly turning out the most advanced military equipment in the world.

"Also, and thanks in part to Hispanic migration, it does not face the ageing population problems that China has."

The US had alliances and friendships with most of the countries of East and South East Asia. "What does China have? The lunatic nation of North Korea, and Pakistan, which is close to a failed state. Even Burma has abandoned it."

Contrary to the belief in some quarters, Australia did not have to choose between the US and China. "In terms of practical policy it is possible to walk and chew gum at the same time."