Searching for an end game in the Korean crisis

The Chinese leadership is probably bemused with the immaturity of both the US and North Korea over the last few months, and the recent Kerry's trip to Beijing indicated there are still a number of unresolved issues such as cyber security and exports of certain technologies the US is blocking. So Secretary Kerry's trip to Beijing actually showed how far away each other are on their views about the Korean Peninsula.

Perhaps China's influence, or willingness to restrain North Korea will be seen on April 25th, if North Korea decides to test launches any missile. If the North doesn't then may be China has convinced the North about being a responsible citizen, although we can't be sure of this as the North makes its own decisions.

The way ahead towards resolution and a great leap forward

What needs to occur now is dialogue, something that's been neglected. The Clinton negotiations and South's then President Kim Dae-jung's "sunshine policy" led to some positive results, where the Kaesong Industrial Zone stands as a symbol of that period. And perhaps that's why it still remains closed today.

Does the North really have the capacity and intention to carry out its threats? Creating a crude nuclear bomb is one thing. But miniaturizing it and turning the bomb into a warhead that can be delivered on a precision missile is another. That's a great leap forward in technology that took the US, Soviet Union, China, France, Pakistan, and India years and a number of tests to achieve. The musudan missile supposedly on alert for firing on the east coast has never been tested.

There is a massive difference between the leader of North Korea and the United States.

The leader of North Korea Kim Jung-un is a young 28 year old trying to come out from the shadow of his father and grandfather, who has almost divine status among the people. Kim Jung-un has to assert his authority domestically and hold up to what he would see as US aggression. He knows what is happening to dictators around the world, and would feel a great sense of insecurity. North Korea is an insular society that has grown into one displaying signs of paranoia. The only defense mechanisms he has at his disposal is the repertoire of rhetoric and actions he inherited from his father. They have worked in the past and US pressure is forcing him to maintain these known patterns of behavior. It is currently very difficult for Kim Jung-un to adopt any new patterns of behavior when the same "cycle of tensions" are being played out.

During the 2008 US Presidential election campaign, so many people were sold on Barak Obama's promise to deal with the world's problems in a different way. Apparently the Nobel Peace Prize Committee reaffirmed these aspirations by awarding President Obama the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize in anticipation. But President Obama found dialogue not so easy, and also had establishment constraints around him. For example, Presidential advisors over the years have seemed to lack one important quality, the ability to understand how other countries see the US. In this way he is not in an dissimilar predicament of Kim Jong-un.

The US approach has always been adversarial as this is the easiest option, supported with a mighty military machine. Since the Korean War, the US has relied upon the dogma of military force to underpin its diplomacy. Relationships and personal networks between the two countries just don't exist. This approach didn't work and President Obama's Secretary of State in his last term Hillary Clinton, did not actually pull off any major international breakthroughs.

However when we look at both men, where would we suspect the most maturity resides? And this is President Obama's great opportunity for legacy, the opportunity to change the game.

Kim Jung-un sent a message via the basketball player Dennis Rodman "ask Obama to call me", might be interpreted to mean that "I am here and just maybe you have misjudged me. Let's get together and see what could happen". Maybe the significance and symbolism of Dennis Rodman being a basketball player and black has not been appreciated.

There are well known parallels to this. China had just gone through the turmoil of the Cultural revolution with the founder Mao Zedong at the helm when President Nixon made the historical trip to Beijing. And remember ping pong was a sport very importantly symbolic of the thaw in relations between the two countries. Through engagement China changed. So why not basketball?