Is Gandhi opting out of Indian election race?

The announcement by Rahul Gandhi that he “wasn’t in the race” to be the next Prime Minister of India has been met by consternation and confusion in the ranks of the governing Congress Party.

Gandhi dropped the bombshell during an interview with journalists, the 42-year-old bachelor also saying that marriage held no attraction for him.

He told what had begun as an informal gathering of reporters and some members of his own party that marriage would be a distraction from his mission to reform the ailing Congress Party which he said had degenerated into an oligarchy “where a tiny elite calls the shots”.

He even cited the revered father of Indian nationalism, Mahatma Gandhi (no relation), as his inspiration, saying that while the Mahatma wielded great influence, he never sought power.  

His comments about the state of the party are not new, but until now insiders had hoped he would lead the reforms from the Prime Minister’s office after winning the general election scheduled for 2014.

Now it seems he will be satisfied with his current position as Congress Vice President, under the presidency of his powerful mother, Sonia, and that the reforms he wants will come as a result of his work in the background.

With the Congress-led Government of Manmohan Singh beset with scandals and allegations of incompetence, and the 80-year-old Singh almost certain to retire, many party members believe the only hope of Congress retaining power is through a resumption of the Gandhi dynasty. Rahul is the son, grandson and great-grandson of Indian Prime Ministers dating back to independence from Britain, and his family name still carries enormous weight in the country.

Moreover, the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) is falling in behind the charismatic Gujarat Chief Minister, Narendra Modi, as its candidate for Prime Minister and is now widely seen as having its best chance of returning to power since its surprise defeat in 2004.

So if Gandhi does decide not to run – and in the maelstrom of Indian politics there is every possibility that he will be persuaded to change his mind – who are the front-runners to lead Congress into the election?

Party insiders say the choice would be between four senior figures: Chidambaram Palaniappan, Arackaparambil Kurien Antony, Sheila Dikshit and Sushil Kumar Shinde.

Chidambaram is the current Finance Minister and is known to be close to the Gandhi family. He has performed well in the office, but is seen as more of a technocrat than a man with the charisma to lead a mass movement.

Antony is also a trusted Gandhi family lieutenant, but as Defence Minister his prestige has suffered in the wake of an alleged high-profile scam in the purchase of 12 helicopters from the Anglo-Italian company AgustaWestland. Charges of further corruption scandals involving contracts for military equipment and claims by senior offices that the Indian military is badly under-prepared have soiled his previously ‘Mr Clean’ image.

Dikshit, the long-serving Chief Minister of Delhi, is facing her fourth state election this year. If she wins her status will be enhanced and there may be some advantage for Congress in putting a woman forward. However, the gang-rape and murder of a young medical student in the city last December and the apparent suicide of one of the suspects, Ram Singh, while in custody, has led to allegations of incompetence and mismanagement in her administration.

Shinde has considerable administrative experience, but is not a good campaigner and is prone to making high-profile gaffes. As Home Affairs Minister he also has to take some of the blame for the failure of law and order in New Delhi and other major cities which has led to slurs that India is the rape capital of the world.   

Which means that despite his reluctance, many in Congress still see Gandhi as the best, and perhaps the only hope, for Congress to win a third straight election. Party spokesperson Rashid Alvi insisted that Rahul’s comments may not be the last word.

“All Congress workers desire that he will become Prime Minister one day and we are sure that our wish will be fulfilled,” Alvi said.

At this point, Congress’s best hope is that the BJP, never the most cohesive of forces, may splinter into quarrelling groups. Modi is by no means universally liked within its many and complex structures, one notable opponent being the Bihar Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar, whose Janata Dal Party is part of the BJP-led coalition.

Kumar has impressive credentials in Bihar with a program of development that has lifted the formerly backward state out of the financial mire to an almost 12 per cent annual growth rate. He does not have a national profile, but the regional seats his party can deliver could be crucial to a BJP majority in 2014.

As one supporter put it: “Nitish Kumar may not become king, but he can definitely be a kingmaker.”

Another problem for Modi is the persistent belief that as a freshman Chief Minister he did little to stop, and might even have encouraged, the infamous Gujarat riots of 2002 in which more than 1000 people, the majority of them Muslims, died. Despite a special investigation clearing him of any complicity in the disturbances, the charges continue to be used against him.

Only recently, an invitation for him to make a video address to the University of Pennsylvania Wharton Business School’s India Economic Forum was withdrawn when academics circulated a petition demanding he be banned on the grounds that the school “should not give platforms to people who have violated so many human rights while in power”.

The publicity generated has done Modi no harm – even Congress leaders criticised Wharton’s decision as a violation of free speech – and further invitations for him to address much larger meetings of the Indian diaspora in New Jersey and Illinois quickly followed.

It is likely the lead-up to what many observers are calling the most important election in India’s 67-year-old democracy will have more twists and turns in the weeks and months to come.