Savage sentences have Hanoi on defensive

"When they were first handed down we were concerned that this heavy-handed treatment would quash dissent, but our research has shown that the opposite is the case, with even more blogs and protests than before. People are even saying that if governments can change in the Middle East and North Africa, then why not here?

"I would stress again that Viet Tan does not support violent revolution, but we believe the time is coming when the Communist Government in Hanoi must heed the voices of the people who are demanding more freedom and a greater say in the affairs of the nation.

"What we will be doing over the next year is to continue to support those voices, irrespective of where they are and who they are. We will raise awareness on the international scene and whatever media pressure, NGO pressure or Government pressure we can get will be welcome."

The arrest of the activists and the freeing of Quan come at a delicate time in Vietnam's relations with the West, and both incidents may have more to do with international power politics than any internal policies.

The General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party, Nguyen Phu Trong, has recently returned from a tour of Europe which included an audience with Pope Benedict XVI. A communique issued after the meeting said the Holy See expressed the hope "that some pending situations may be resolved and that existing cooperation may be strengthened." – a thinly veiled warning to cease persecution of Vietnamese Catholics, who still make up a significant percentage of the population.

Meetings with British Prime Minister David Cameron and European Union officials centred around issues of trade, but interestingly were followed up by a visit to Vietnam by Britain's Under Secretary of State for Defence, Lord Astor.

Like other countries in South-East Asia, Vietnam is concerned over China's emerging economic and military might, coupled with a more aggressive stance towards territorial claims in the South China Sea – the Paracel Islands being a case in point.

Ideally it sees a counterbalance through closer ties with the West. The key, of course, is a continued American presence in the region. However, with a substantial Vietnamese population in the US, including a vocal Viet Tan, and a White House that gives human rights a high priority, Hanoi has to tread a fine line.

The release of Quan is one long-overdue concession. It remains to be seen whether a further reduction in the harsh sentences handed out to the Vietnam 14 will follow.

Comment on this article was requested from the Vietnamese Embassy in Canberra. None was forthcoming.