The state of play in federal politics

Refugee policy

While the Liberal's may be accused of playing politics on industrial relations, both sides of politics are playing politics with refugee policy. Gillard has maintained the rhetoric of her predecessor in focusing refugee policy as one premised on "wrecking the people smuggling trade". Having lost a High Court challenge on the Malaysian option, Gillard turned to the Angus Houston, Michael L'Estrange and Paris Aristotle to produce a policy, argued as necessary to stop deaths at sea. From late 2001 to June 2012, 964 asylum seekers and boat crew had been lost at sea while en route to Australia. Of these, 604 people have died since October 2009. The 22 recommendations of the Expert Panel on Asylum Seekers were introduced in amendments to the Migration Act.

The result is Gillard has now adopted the Liberal policy of offshore detention for asylum seekers. While Gillard has rejected the introduction of TPV's, the other arm of Howard's deterrence strategy, there are reports of pressure coming from Labor MP's to reintroduce the measure. With an election looming, and with marginal seats in capital cities to lose, the dog whistle politics of TPV's may force Gillard to concede. Should she do this, it would neutralise Abbott's position, but it may not save the government. In terms of the Party, the issue of TPV's is a divisive issue and one a Party trying to rebuild in states like NSW, does not need.

Labor Party reform

Simon Crean lost the leadership of the ALP in December 2003 because he backed Labor Party reform, focusing on reducing union voting rights within the Party's policy-making conference framework. Gillard has so far said little on Party reform. Instead it has been Senator John Faulkner, focusing on the NSW Branch that has led the charge. The ALP at a state level is dysfunctional. In NSW, the Party desperately needs to rejuvenate party membership by handing over more power to members in policy and leadership issues. NSW Secretary Sam Dastyari has been thoughtful in considering primary-style elections, a relocation of the notorious Sussex Street complex to the Western suburbs of Sydney, and distancing the ALP from the ICAC investigations into former Labor powerbroker Eddie Obied and the dealings of Ian Macdonald. Dastyari and Faulkner are calling for the dismantling of the factional system following other Labor luminaries including John Button, Robert Ray, and Rodney Cavalier. This is a move welcomed within the Party's rank-and-file.

Numbers game

Gillard will lose seats in NSW at the next election. But elections are about numbers, 150 seats means government is formed with 76 seats. Five independents currently sit on the crossbenches: Oakeshott, Windsor, and Wilkie along with former Liberal Peter Slipper and former Labor member Craig Thomson. Slipper and Thomson are unlikely to be re-elected. Wilkie's chances on re-election will rest on local issues. Windsor is a political maverick likely to be re-elected, however along with Oakeshott, all sides of politics will heavily target their seats. The Green's have only ever had one other member in the House of Representatives, Michael Organ elected in a by-election in 2002 and unable to retain his NSW seat of Cunningham at the subsequent general election. Bandt is still an unknown quantity and, as with Wilkie, will rely on local issues to be re-elected.

This aside, maths will determine the color and makeup of the next government. NSW, Queensland and Western Australia are problem states for the Gillard Government. Victoria and South Australia are much stronger. Tasmania should return a few seats reasonably well. What this means for the Opposition, is a targeted marginal seats campaign focusing on suburban seats in Brisbane and Sydney. It is here the Liberal Party's hard-line policies on asylum seekers may do well, but it needs to be very careful on industrial relations, and needs to do better in articulating the Liberal Party's economic policies. It cost John Hewson one election, and may cost Tony Abbott the next one.