Rainbow revolution: why Mitt Romney's defeat is bad news for Tony Abbott

Under President Obama, the Democrats have finally succeeded in establishing an alternative values framework that resonates with the new majority of voters. Critically, it has also not alienated the 'old left' - traditionally conservative working class constituencies in manufacturing states like Ohio.

So how does all of this relate to Tony Abbott? While one has to be careful not to read too much into the US election result (after all there are important differences between our two political systems) there are some interesting parallels:

For instance, like the US Republicans, in an effort to damage his opponent Tony Abbott has sought to create an air of hyper-partisanship and chaos in Canberra. Rather than articulating a compelling alternative vision, it seems much of Abbott's strategy has been based on the belief that he can surf to the Lodge on a wave of carbon tax resistance. It seems however that the tide is now turning. Critically, Abbott's failure to spell out a clear alternative has also aided Gillard in framing her opponent.

On gender politics, like Romney Abbott has faced difficulties. His record as Health Minister during the Howard years, coupled with his continued use of gender derogatory phrases (in reference to the Prime Minister in particular) has contributed to a growing perception that he is out of step with modern Australian women. The Prime Minister's stinging misogyny speech in the parliament last month can only have reinforced this image.

Abbott has also been damaged by the remarks of some of his high profile supporters and associations with Alan Jones and Corey Bernadi have further undermined his standing as a leader of the mainstream.

Similarly, Abbott's position on the mining tax and other tax reforms aimed at high-income owners has left him open to charges that, like his Republican counterpart, he is currying favor from the big end of town.

Gillard appears to be framing the next election as a contest of values. A national disability Insurance Scheme, DentiCare, increased funding for mental health; along with a renewed emphasis on Australia's role in the Asian century are part of the Prime Minister's vision for a modern Australia. This sits in stark contrast to the agenda of her opponent.

However, in contrast to Obama, Gillard's social agenda remains largely inconsistent. For instance, while Gillard has rightly stood up against sexism, she has not shown the same resolve on the issue of homophobia. Despite majority support for gay marriage in the community, she has continued to cling to the minority position favored by the conservative forces within her party. On the issue of asylum seekers, under Gillard Labor has moved even further to the conservative side of politics.

However, Obama has demonstrated that it is possible to articulate a vision that is appealing to conservative working class voters, as well as 'progressives' in the inner cities. This is something that Labor succeeded in doing in 2007 and must do again if it is to govern in its own right.

In Tony Abbott, Labor has a candidate who is uniquely vulnerable to an assault from its own 'rainbow'coalition. The challenge for Labor is to develop a suite of policies that will resonate with this emerging Australian mainstream.

For the Liberals, Romney's defeat is a warning that simply opposing the leader of the day is not enough. Values matter and a successful leader will reflect those of their nation.