Like what you've read?

On Line Opinion is the only Australian site where you get all sides of the story. We don't
charge, but we need your support. Here�s how you can help.

  • Advertise

    We have a monthly audience of 70,000 and advertising packages from $200 a month.

  • Volunteer

    We always need commissioning editors and sub-editors.

  • Contribute

    Got something to say? Submit an essay.


 The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
On Line Opinion logo ON LINE OPINION - Australia's e-journal of social and political debate

Subscribe!
Subscribe





On Line Opinion is a not-for-profit publication and relies on the generosity of its sponsors, editors and contributors. If you would like to help, contact us.
___________

Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

Exceptions that disprove the AGW 'rule'

By Anthony Cox and Joanne Nova - posted Tuesday, 2 October 2012


McShane &Wyner tried to create the same graph from the same data but could not. They conclude:

"Using our model, we calculate that there is a 36% posterior probability that 1998 was the warmest year over the past thousand. If we consider rolling decades, 1997-2006 is the warmest on record; our model gives an 80% chance that it was the warmest in the past thousand years. Finally, if we look at rolling thirty-year blocks, the posterior probability that the last thirty years (again, the warmest on record) were the warmest over the past thousand is 38%."[page 37]

So, even using Mann's dubious data and employing a variety of statistical methods, McShane & Wyner's model suggests that there is only an 80% chance that one recent decade was the warmest of the last 1000 years, and 1998 is most likely not the warmest year [64% against] and the last 30 year period is also unlikely to have been the warmest [62% against]. In other words, the type of weather we have now has all occurred before, and in the not too distant past when CO2 was supposedly low.

Advertisement

6 McKitrick, McIntyre, Herman 2010

If the IPCC models are right about the feedbacks, we would see a hot spot 10km above the tropics. AGW theory says this should happen because more water will have been evaporated to this part of the atmosphere and would have caused rapid warming.

McKitrick et al found that the model predictions are about 4 times higher and outside the error bars of the weather balloons and satellites measurements.

McKitrick et al's findings have been replicated by Fu et al who also find a discrepancy between the models and observations about Troposphere warming, although not to the same extent as McKitrick et al do. However, in a follow-up paper, McKitrick and Vogelsang not only confirm that the predictions of warming by the models have been exaggerated but also show the small amount of recent warming was due to a natural climate shift in 1977. This climate shift has been noted by many other researchers and means global warming is playing an even smaller role then predicted by the models.

7 Anagnostopoulis, G.G., Koutsoyiannis, D., Christofides, A., Efstratiadis, A., and Mamassis, N.

If McKitrick et al shows that the IPCC global computer models can't model the present and therefore the future, Professor Demetrius Koutsoyiannis and his team show those models can't even model the past

Advertisement

In his 2008 paper Koutsoyiannis compared the model predictions from 1990 to 2008 and whether those models could retrospectively match the actual temperature over the past 100 years. This test of retrospectivity is called hindcasting. If a model has valid assumptions about the climatic effect of variables such as greenhouse gases, particularly CO2, then the model should be able to match past known data.

Koutsoyiannis's 2008 paper has not had a peer reviewed rebuttal but was subject to a critique at Real Climate by Gavin Schmidt. Schmidt's criticism was 4-fold; that Koutsoyiannis uses a regional comparison, few models, real temperatures not anomalies and too short a time period.

Each of Schmidt's criticisms was either wrong or anticipated by Koutsoyiannis. The period from 1990-2008 was the period in which IPCC modeling had occurred; the IPCC had argued that regional effects from global warming would occur; model ensembles were used by Koutsoyiannis; and since the full 100 year temperature and rainfall data was used in intra-annual and 30 year periods by Koutsoyiannis anomalies were irrelevant.

In 2008 Koutsoyiannis found that while the models had some success with the monthly data all the models were "irrelevant with reality" at the 30 year climate scale.

Koutsoyiannis's 2010 paper "is a continuation and expansion of Koutsoyiannis 2008". The differences are that (a) Koutsoyiannis 2008 had tested only eight points, whereas 2010 tests 55 points for each variable; (b) 2010 examines more variables in addition to mean temperature and precipitation; and (c) 2010 compares at a large scale in addition to point scale. The large, continental scale in this case is the contiguous US.

Again Koutsoyiannis 2010 found that the models did not hindcast successfully with real data from all the 55 world regions not matching what the models produced. The models were even worse in hindcasting against the real data for the US continent.

  1. Pages:
  2. 1
  3. 2
  4. Page 3
  5. All


Discuss in our Forums

See what other readers are saying about this article!

Click here to read & post comments.

87 posts so far.

Share this:
reddit this reddit thisbookmark with del.icio.us Del.icio.usdigg thisseed newsvineSeed NewsvineStumbleUpon StumbleUponsubmit to propellerkwoff it

About the Authors

Anthony Cox is a lawyer and secretary of The Climate Sceptics.

Joanne Nova wrote The Skeptics Handbook, 160,000 copies of which have been distributed in four nations and translated by volunteers into six languages. She's a freelance writer, blogger and also an analyst for The Science and Public Policy Institute in the USA. She was a prize winning graduate of molecular biology, and a former associate lecturer in Science Communication at the ANU. Her new blog, JoNova, has reached 140,000 people already this year with over 400,000 page views and 6000 comments. She has spoken about climate science communication in New York and to Senate Staffers in Washington, and attended the UNFCCC in Bali, 2007. Joanne has done over 200 radio interviews, and hosted a science series for children on Channel Nine.

Other articles by these Authors

All articles by Anthony Cox
All articles by Joanne Nova

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Article Tools
Comment 87 comments
Print Printable version
Subscribe Subscribe
Email Email a friend
Advertisement

About Us Search Discuss Feedback Legals Privacy